Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Saturday, December 27, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ORRINGER Lottie	-	3%	17%	43%	38%
2	KIM Natalie	2%	16%	38%	35%	9%
3	HU Sophie	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
3	CHAN Jolene	-	1%	7%	31%	49%	13%
6	HUANG Sophie	-	-	1%	6%	26%	46%	20%
7	XING Melly	-	1%	7%	22%	36%	27%	7%
8	FENG Claire	22%	43%	28%	7%	1%
9	HAFEZ Tahiyah	-	-	-	5%	33%	62%
10	HAFEZ Sahar	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	19%	4%
11	ZHU Ella	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	19%	4%
12	XU-FERGUSON Victoria	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	6%	1%
13	CAO Amelie	-	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	33%
14	DONG Katelyn	4%	19%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
15	HUANG Natalie	-	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	29%
16	LIN Katherine	-	1%	7%	21%	34%	28%	9%
17	MA Emily(Yiming)	1%	7%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
17	MA Sophia	-	6%	25%	38%	25%	6%	-
19	LI Junhan	-	1%	9%	24%	34%	25%	7%
20	SONG Erin	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	29%	8%
21	ZHANG Priscilla	3%	19%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
22	LIU Bella	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	-
23	ZHENG Annalyn	4%	23%	41%	27%	5%
24	ZOLDAN Nolabelle	2%	14%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
24	ZHANG Caroline	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	4%	-
24	LUO lucy	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
27	TAN Dorathy	-	-	-	2%	13%	43%	42%
28	CHO Olivia	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
29	POEI Meagan	4%	35%	42%	17%	2%	-
30	KIM Ines	2%	25%	45%	24%	4%	-
31	WU Lorena	2%	12%	29%	32%	19%	5%	1%
32	KHETPAL Aalia	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
33	SUN Erin	-	9%	30%	38%	20%	4%	-
34	ZHANG Hannah	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	12%	2%
35	PHAN Logan	-	8%	33%	42%	14%	1%
36	GENG Emma	21%	42%	29%	8%	1%
37	WU Charlotte	3%	15%	31%	31%	15%	4%	-
38	LEO Jenna	2%	12%	29%	32%	18%	5%	1%
39	HUANG Annabelle	66%	29%	5%	-	-	-	-
40	SELSER Ella	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
42	SONG Sarah	38%	41%	17%	4%	-	-	-
43	DZIWULSKI Elisabeth Claire	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
44	LU Chloe	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
45	JOSEPH Rachel	41%	40%	16%	3%	-	-	-
46	LUEKEN Adelina	14%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
47	LOBO Sophie	74%	24%	2%	-	-	-
48	JAIN Dia	4%	30%	40%	21%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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