Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Épée

Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Caroline	-	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
2	YU Chloe	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	14%
3	LEE Gloria Y.	-	-	-	-	2%	18%	81%
3	RICHARDS Axelle	-	2%	9%	24%	35%	24%	6%
5	ALLIEVI Simone	-	4%	18%	34%	31%	12%	1%
6	PILSON Rebecca	-	-	8%	49%	42%
6	BISONO Valentina	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	17%
8	XIE ANDREA	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
9	KROPP Anne (Charlie)	-	-	-	1%	8%	34%	57%
10	SHEIKH PAREE	1%	9%	31%	39%	18%	2%
10	JIANG Alexandra	-	4%	20%	41%	30%	5%
12	RAJ Indra	1%	10%	26%	33%	22%	7%	1%
13	NOLAN Sophia	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
14	WEI Sherry	-	1%	10%	50%	40%
15	CHEN Ava	-	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%
16	GORE Amina	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
17	KAKANI Aditi	-	2%	16%	36%	34%	12%
18	ZHANG Ashley	-	2%	9%	24%	35%	24%	6%
19	SHIN Jamie	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%	1%
20	KELSEY Fabienne	1%	9%	24%	34%	24%	7%	1%
21	LEE Kate	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	7%
22	LI Xier	-	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%
24	KWON Claire	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	13%	1%
25	LEONG Andrea	6%	34%	40%	17%	3%	-
26	GORDON Hannah	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
27	STEEL Jane	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
28	KALI Aiana	20%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
29	ASHFORD Marguerite	8%	37%	45%	9%	1%
30	HAGERMAN Siona	12%	42%	33%	11%	2%	-
31	JANGALA Risha	41%	45%	13%	1%	-
33	AZAD Ava	1%	13%	37%	35%	12%	1%
34	NAPOLI Eleanor	23%	50%	25%	2%	-
35	PRAVEEN Nehara	13%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-
36	ZHENG Kristen	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
37	ZHANG Sophia	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
38	THOMPSON Grace	7%	26%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-
39	BUNCH Halle	16%	37%	31%	13%	2%	-
40	RAGSDALE Lillian	11%	30%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
41	YOUNG Penelope	7%	25%	35%	23%	8%	1%	-
42	SHABBIR Aiza	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
43	KUPPUSAMY Mahaa	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
44	PORTER Cora	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	4%	-
45	MORET Teagan	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
46	DROLET Julia	64%	31%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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