Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, December 28, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SU Landon	-	-	-	-	3%	23%	74%
2	DECK Tyson	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
3	BALU Aedan	-	3%	14%	29%	32%	18%	4%
3	LUAN Mark	-	1%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
5	LIN Felix	-	-	3%	13%	30%	36%	18%
6	QIN toby	-	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	-
7	SALMAN Hamzah	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
8	SRIVATSAV Anay	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
9	SRIVATSAV Ishaan	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
10	FENG Brendan	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	12%
11	YADAV Lakshya	-	1%	7%	21%	35%	28%	8%
12	BENE Andrew	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	1%
13	LI Cooper	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	26%	7%
14	PARCELL Colby	-	2%	14%	32%	35%	15%	1%
15	LAMTAN Christoffer	-	2%	10%	30%	39%	19%
16	SIDDAMSHETTY Ishaan	-	5%	22%	36%	27%	8%	-
17	TASIKAS Peter	3%	16%	31%	30%	16%	4%	-
18	BUKZIN Alan	-	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	-
19	BENSON Jacob	-	3%	15%	31%	31%	15%	3%
20	CHAWLA Abhishek	5%	22%	37%	26%	8%	1%
21	KIM Yusung	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
22	LIU Marvin	1%	5%	18%	32%	29%	13%	2%
23	BENE Paul	15%	35%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
24	NG Nathaniel	6%	23%	34%	25%	10%	2%	-
25	MOON Noah	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
26	LIU Jayden	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	-
26	WANG Ziyao	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
28	KANE Kiran	10%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-
29	PIPKE Garrett	30%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
30	VLASENKO Bohdan	1%	5%	18%	32%	29%	13%	2%
31	LUAN Stephen	1%	15%	35%	33%	14%	2%	-
32	ZHENG Lucas	10%	32%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
33	GRAY Joshua	74%	23%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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