Treasure Chest RYC/Y8

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM

Treasure Island YMCA - San Francisco, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LEE Kyle Sung Ju	-	-	1%	11%	42%	47%
2	CAO Chong	-	1%	12%	44%	40%	3%
3	LI Sky	2%	23%	48%	26%	1%
3	TAGUINOD Aidan Matthew	-	-	-	2%	22%	75%
5	LUO Gavin	-	-	3%	17%	44%	37%
6	ZHENG Matt	-	1%	12%	38%	37%	11%
7	ZHANG Hanzhi	-	4%	22%	42%	28%	3%
8	YUNG Nathan	-	-	5%	30%	48%	17%
9	GALANG Aiden	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	17%
10	KURBANOV Tamir	-	1%	14%	45%	33%	6%
11	BLACK Conall	22%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
12	SEVERT david	14%	40%	33%	11%	1%	-
13	RAMAKRISHNA Arjun	1%	12%	36%	38%	13%
14	CHEN Rylan	-	1%	17%	47%	36%
15	ZHANG Yuanhang (Peter)	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	3%
16	NOWAKOWSKI Zachary	5%	30%	41%	20%	4%	-
17	LIU Franklin	2%	20%	41%	29%	7%	-
18	DOUGLAS Milo	69%	27%	4%	-	-
19	JECHA Zachary	-	8%	30%	41%	19%	2%
20	LIN Rongcheng Noah	5%	26%	41%	23%	5%	-
21	WU Aiden	6%	33%	45%	15%	1%	-
22	WALSH Charlie	19%	47%	29%	5%	-	-
23	LORENTZEN Felix	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	26%
24	CALLAHAN Macsen	31%	43%	21%	4%	-	-
25	KIM ZOLLER Jude	4%	23%	41%	26%	6%	-
26	LAM Dylan	3%	28%	42%	23%	4%
27	GOURJI Roman	46%	43%	11%	1%	-	-
28	XIAO Lucas	23%	45%	26%	5%	-	-
29	CHEN Yihan	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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