Event Results

Y-12 Men's Saber

Treasure Chest RYC/Y8Surprise Map

Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM Treasure Island YMCA · San Francisco, CA, USA

29 finishers

Difficulty Upsets Pool Heatmap Strength

Green wins and red losses stand out more as the result becomes less expected.

#	Name	Bout Difficulty vs. Outcome		Pool Victories
#	Name	Pool	DE	Exp.	Act.	Diff.
1	LEE Kyle Sung Ju	V V V V V	V V V V	4.3	5	+0.7
2	CAO Chong	V V V V V	V V V D	3.3	5	+1.7
3	LI Sky	V V V V	V V V D	2.0	4	+2.0
3	TAGUINOD Aidan Matthew	D V V V V	V V V D	4.7	4	-0.7
5	LUO Gavin	V V V V V	V D	4.1	5	+0.9
6	ZHENG Matt	V V D V V	V V D	3.5	4	+0.5
7	ZHANG Hanzhi	V V V V D	V V D	3.0	4	+1.0
8	YUNG Nathan	V V D D V	V V D	3.8	3	-0.8
9	GALANG Aiden	V V V D V	V D	3.6	4	+0.4
10	KURBANOV Tamir	V D V V V	V D	3.3	4	+0.7
11	BLACK Conall	D V V D V	V D	1.2	3	+1.8
12	SEVERT david	D V D V V	V D	1.5	3	+1.5
13	RAMAKRISHNA Arjun	D V V D	V D	2.5	2	-0.5
14	CHEN Rylan	V D D V	D	3.2	2	-1.2
15	ZHANG Yuanhang (Peter)	D D V V D	V D	2.7	2	-0.7
16	NOWAKOWSKI Zachary	D D D D V	V D	1.9	1	-0.9
17	LIU Franklin	V D V V V	D	2.2	4	+1.8
18	DOUGLAS Milo	D V V D	D	0.3	2	+1.7
19	JECHA Zachary	V V D D D		2.7	2	-0.7
20	LIN Rongcheng Noah	V D D V D	D	2.0	2	-
21	WU Aiden	D D V V D	D	1.7	2	+0.3
22	WALSH Charlie	D V D D D	D	1.2	1	-0.2
23	LORENTZEN Felix	D D V D D	D	3.9	1	-2.9
24	CALLAHAN Macsen	V D D D D	D	0.9	1	+0.1
25	KIM ZOLLER Jude	D D D D D	D	2.1	0	-2.1
26	LAM Dylan	D D D D	D	2.0	0	-2.0
27	GOURJI Roman	D D D D D	D	0.7	0	-0.7
28	XIAO Lucas	D D D D D	D	1.1	0	-1.1
29	CHEN Yihan	D D D D D	D	0.4	0	-0.4

Outcome	Difficulty	Win Probability
Victory	Very Hard	0% to 20%
Victory	Hard	20% to 40%
Victory	Roughly Even	40% to 60%
Victory	Easy	60% to 80%
Victory	Very Easy	80% to 100%
Defeat	Very Hard	0% to 20%
Defeat	Hard	20% to 40%
Defeat	Roughly Even	40% to 60%
Defeat	Easy	60% to 80%
Defeat	Very Easy	80% to 100%

The future of US Fencing is at stake!