Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div I-A Women's Épée

Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ILYAS Ayah - - 2% 15% 46% 32% 5%
2 PILSON Rebecca - 4% 18% 39% 33% 6%
3 BALAZS Luca - 1% 9% 31% 43% 16%
3 LIANG Carina 1% 7% 24% 36% 24% 7% 1%
5 CHI Chelsea - - - 1% 8% 38% 53%
6 KROPP Anne (Charlie) - 1% 6% 22% 41% 30%
7 MEMON Insha 1% 12% 34% 37% 14% 1%
8 OLELE Ifechi - 7% 26% 38% 23% 5%
9 MARX Leslie M. - - - - 8% 38% 54%
10 QI Julieanne - - - 2% 15% 41% 42%
11 CHEN Ava 4% 22% 38% 28% 7% -
12 YOON Elsa 15% 58% 24% 3% < 1% - -
13 ZHU Serene M. - - 2% 13% 42% 43%
14 DUNSEATH Lauren M. - 1% 8% 27% 41% 23%
15 ZUCKER Emily A. 4% 29% 39% 21% 5% -
16 LEVKOV Maita 2% 15% 34% 32% 14% 3% -
17 NOLAN Sophia 6% 25% 36% 25% 8% 1%
18 KONG Mila W. 4% 21% 38% 29% 8% -
19 SUICO Kyubi Emmanuelle - 1% 7% 27% 42% 21% 3%
19 WANG Ziqiao (Claire) - 1% 7% 24% 37% 25% 5%
21 YAO Chloe 2% 13% 31% 34% 17% 3%
22 ASHER Valerie - - - 6% 33% 46% 14%
23 LI Xier 1% 12% 34% 37% 14% 2% -
24 TOLLEY Toby - - 1% 8% 32% 45% 14%
25 PROKOP Jeannine A. - 5% 22% 38% 28% 7%
26 POLANICHKA Nicole - - < 1% 5% 30% 65%
27 IVANOV Angela-Sophie 14% 40% 34% 11% 2% -
28 SHIN Jamie 12% 33% 34% 16% 4% -
29 AZAD Ava 5% 27% 38% 23% 6% 1% -
30 CHERNOBRIVETS Maria 1% 11% 45% 36% 7% 1% -
31 PARK Suhjee 47% 40% 11% 1% - - -
32 ALVAREZ Martine 63% 31% 6% - - -
33 BENAVIDES Samantha 3% 20% 40% 29% 8% 1% -
34 ROWLAND May - 5% 32% 45% 16% 2% -
35 JEANDHEUR Carole A. - 2% 12% 30% 35% 18% 3%
36 GARCIA Aly 1% 9% 27% 36% 22% 5%
37 BOWIE Charlotta 1% 8% 28% 37% 21% 4%
38 RALSTON Katy 8% 30% 38% 20% 4% -
39 SILVA Hailey 33% 44% 19% 4% - -
40 KWON Claire 9% 36% 38% 15% 2% - -
41 MURPHY Megan 4% 21% 40% 28% 7% 1%
42 THOMPSON Grace 46% 39% 12% 2% - - -
43 DUNNE Jessica 8% 28% 36% 22% 6% 1%
44 JULIEN Erica 28% 42% 24% 6% 1% -
45 CHI Evelyn 70% 27% 2% - - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.