Freehold Fencing - January Open Foil

Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 11:30 AM

Freehold Fencing Academy - Freehold, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WONG Jacob W.	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
2	LUM-DEBONO Alex	-	-	-	3%	22%	75%
3	OLSON Stephen J.	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
3	SOBON Jason	-	1%	8%	34%	49%	8%
5	NICUDEMUS Bryella	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%	1%
6	EZEKIEL Nathan	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
7	POLEBOYINA Amrit	1%	9%	28%	38%	22%	3%
8	FALCONE Jack	-	1%	10%	33%	37%	16%	2%
9	ROJAS Elijah	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
10	DESMOND Sterling	-	1%	6%	26%	40%	24%	4%
11	SORSAIA John	2%	17%	39%	33%	8%	-
12	D'ALONZO Jake	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
13	REZA Fukaina	1%	7%	27%	39%	22%	3%
14	NIECHWADOWICZ Michael	-	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	6%
15	BULAVA Tatyana	12%	33%	34%	16%	3%	-
16	RAY Callum	1%	7%	31%	43%	18%	1%
17	XU Lucas	2%	18%	41%	30%	9%	1%
18	VACCARO Lillian	1%	17%	42%	32%	8%	-
18	WARD Evan	14%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
20	BEKIYANTS Elizabeth	19%	49%	26%	5%	-	-
21	SANTHOSH Rithwik	2%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
22	LEVKOVICH Avery	8%	37%	39%	14%	2%	-	-
23	CULLEN Alyssa	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
24	CHEN Eric	1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	7%
25	LEZHANSKY Alexis	37%	42%	18%	3%	-	-
26	ESPINAL Ryan	11%	39%	36%	12%	1%	-
27	KOO Jaeha	47%	41%	11%	1%	-	-	-
28	PENG Odin	7%	31%	40%	18%	4%	-	-
29	PENG Helios	47%	41%	11%	1%	-	-
30	KAUR Jasleen	3%	28%	43%	22%	4%	-
31	KAUR Divjot	1%	18%	49%	28%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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