Magic City New Years Competition (Foil/Epee)

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 8:15 AM

Birmingham Fencing Club - Birmingham, AL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 GORDON Reis 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 69%
2 MINER Colin 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 70%
3 ELLIOTT Wyatt 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 85% 22%
3 ALLEY Everett T 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 47% 7%
5 PAYNE Gareth 100% 100% 100% 95% 75% 32%
6 CHALMERS Thomas 100% 100% 91% 62% 24% 3%
7 JOHNSTON Jacob 100% 100% 84% 46% 13% 2% -
8 OLSON Clayton 100% 99% 89% 58% 21% 3%
9 KNOX Aidan 100% 98% 80% 44% 13% 1%
10 GEISSLER Maximilian 100% 95% 71% 31% 6% - -
11 JOHNSON Soren 100% 100% 96% 76% 35% 4% -
12 PUFFENBERGER Daniel 100% 98% 73% 31% 6% 1% -
13 KERTESZ Stefan 100% 100% 97% 81% 44% 10% -
15 FOSTER Andrew 100% 99% 91% 58% 18% 2%
16 LOUDON Luke 100% 97% 78% 38% 8% - -
17 OLSON Lucas 100% 96% 75% 36% 8% - -
18 PHILLIPS Carson 100% 57% 16% 2% - - -
19 LENTINI Christopher 100% 100% 94% 68% 26% 4% -
20 VARNER Kathryn 100% 17% 1% - - - -
21 HANNER Robert 100% 38% 7% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.