Magic City New Years Competition (Foil/Epee)

Div III Mixed Épée

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 12:15 PM

Birmingham Fencing Club - Birmingham, AL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 CHEN Allen - - 1% 15% 46% 38%
2 CHEN Andrew - - 1% 7% 26% 42% 23%
3 KNOX Aidan - 1% 6% 21% 35% 28% 9%
3 LOUDON Luke 12% 36% 35% 14% 2% -
5 KERTESZ Stefan - - 1% 9% 29% 41% 19%
6 CHALMERS Thomas - 3% 17% 38% 33% 9%
7 WYNN Paul - - 2% 12% 30% 38% 17%
8 PUFFENBERGER Daniel - 1% 11% 31% 37% 17% 3%
9 GEISSLER Maximilian 1% 9% 25% 34% 23% 8% 1%
11 VOGT VON HESELHOLT Dr. Tobias - 2% 15% 37% 33% 11% 1%
12 FOSTER Andrew - 5% 18% 33% 29% 12% 2%
13 BANJA Michael 10% 33% 36% 17% 4% - -
14 JACKSON Nathan 2% 11% 28% 35% 20% 4%
15 PHILLIPS Carson 22% 40% 27% 9% 2% - -
16 AGUILLON Alexis 17% 39% 32% 11% 1% -
17 OLSON Lucas 4% 20% 35% 28% 11% 2% -
18 CARVER David 7% 29% 40% 20% 3% -
19 HANNER Robert 3% 33% 41% 19% 4% - -
20 LENTINI Christopher 3% 16% 30% 30% 16% 4% -
21 VARNER Kathryn 34% 50% 14% 2% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.