Magic City New Years Competition (Foil/Epee)

Div III Mixed Épée

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 12:15 PM

Birmingham Fencing Club - Birmingham, AL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 CHEN Allen 100% 100% 100% 99% 84% 38%
2 CHEN Andrew 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 23%
3 KNOX Aidan 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 37% 9%
3 LOUDON Luke 100% 88% 51% 16% 2% -
5 KERTESZ Stefan 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 61% 19%
6 CHALMERS Thomas 100% 100% 96% 79% 41% 9%
7 WYNN Paul 100% 100% 100% 97% 86% 55% 17%
8 PUFFENBERGER Daniel 100% 100% 98% 88% 57% 20% 3%
9 GEISSLER Maximilian 100% 99% 90% 65% 32% 9% 1%
11 VOGT VON HESELHOLT Dr. Tobias 100% 100% 98% 83% 46% 13% 1%
12 FOSTER Andrew 100% 100% 95% 76% 43% 14% 2%
13 BANJA Michael 100% 90% 57% 21% 4% - -
14 JACKSON Nathan 100% 98% 88% 59% 24% 4%
15 PHILLIPS Carson 100% 78% 38% 11% 2% - -
16 AGUILLON Alexis 100% 83% 43% 12% 1% -
17 OLSON Lucas 100% 96% 77% 41% 13% 2% -
18 CARVER David 100% 93% 64% 23% 4% -
19 HANNER Robert 100% 97% 64% 23% 4% - -
20 LENTINI Christopher 100% 97% 81% 51% 21% 5% -
21 VARNER Kathryn 100% 66% 16% 2% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.