Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div II Men's Saber

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 11:30 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 FILATOV Aleksandr - - 1% 9% 40% 50%
2 RINALDI Savio - 1% 10% 33% 42% 14%
3 DOARES Andrew - - - 1% 13% 87%
3 LEHMAN Matthew 5% 24% 38% 25% 7% 1%
5 AERY FALLICK Ozzie - - 2% 13% 40% 46%
6 WASCO Andrew - 3% 16% 36% 34% 11%
7 PARCELL Colby - 1% 17% 47% 32% 2%
8 BROOKS Isaac 13% 38% 34% 13% 2% -
9 TOSCANO Sebastian 1% 11% 32% 37% 17% 2%
10 MOON Noah 1% 11% 33% 39% 14% 1%
11 KLEBS Robert - 5% 20% 38% 30% 7%
12 BROOKS Theo 4% 22% 40% 28% 6%
13 LIU Guanyu 2% 14% 36% 36% 12%
14 BREUER Daniel - 6% 25% 43% 26%
15 ELLIS Bremmen 38% 46% 15% 2% - -
16 WANG Ziyao 23% 47% 25% 5% - -
17 KANE Kiran 13% 38% 35% 13% 2%
18 BIALIK Noah 1% 8% 27% 38% 22% 5%
19 MATTINGLY Ian 1% 11% 46% 34% 7% -
20 SZULIM Rad - 1% 17% 46% 34% 2%
21 BENSON Jacob 1% 11% 31% 37% 17% 2%
22 BRESLOW Frederick M. - 1% 9% 28% 40% 22%
23 SU Ji 10% 32% 37% 18% 3% -
24 HOWERTON Beckett 28% 43% 23% 5% -
25 CHU Brandon A. - 7% 44% 38% 11% 1%
26 YADAV Ajay 37% 51% 11% 1% - -
27 JIN Adam 37% 42% 17% 3% - -
28 MITCHELL Eric A. 26% 42% 25% 7% 1% -
29 MICHALSKI Brandon 43% 48% 9% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.