Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Div II Men's Saber

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 11:30 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Reset

Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 FILATOV Aleksandr 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 50%
2 RINALDI Savio 100% 100% 99% 89% 56% 14%
3 DOARES Andrew 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 87%
3 LEHMAN Matthew 100% 95% 70% 32% 7% 1%
5 AERY FALLICK Ozzie 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 46%
6 WASCO Andrew 100% 100% 97% 81% 45% 11%
7 PARCELL Colby 100% 100% 99% 81% 34% 2%
8 BROOKS Isaac 100% 87% 49% 16% 2% -
9 TOSCANO Sebastian 100% 99% 88% 56% 19% 2%
10 MOON Noah 100% 99% 87% 54% 15% 1%
11 KLEBS Robert 100% 100% 95% 75% 37% 7%
12 BROOKS Theo 100% 96% 74% 34% 6%
13 LIU Guanyu 100% 98% 84% 48% 12%
14 BREUER Daniel 100% 100% 94% 69% 26%
15 ELLIS Bremmen 100% 62% 17% 2% - -
16 WANG Ziyao 100% 77% 30% 5% - -
17 KANE Kiran 100% 87% 49% 14% 2%
18 BIALIK Noah 100% 99% 92% 64% 26% 5%
19 MATTINGLY Ian 100% 99% 88% 42% 8% -
20 SZULIM Rad 100% 100% 99% 82% 35% 2%
21 BENSON Jacob 100% 99% 87% 56% 20% 2%
22 BRESLOW Frederick M. 100% 100% 99% 90% 62% 22%
23 SU Ji 100% 90% 58% 21% 4% -
24 HOWERTON Beckett 100% 72% 28% 5% -
25 CHU Brandon A. 100% 100% 93% 49% 11% 1%
26 YADAV Ajay 100% 63% 12% 1% - -
27 JIN Adam 100% 63% 20% 3% - -
28 MITCHELL Eric A. 100% 74% 32% 7% 1% -
29 MICHALSKI Brandon 100% 57% 9% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.