Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Cadet Women's Saber

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

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Color shade indicates the magnitude of a surprise (positive or negative). Grey means no suprise. Read more.

#	Name	Bout Difficulty vs. Outcome^*		Pool Victories
#	Name	Pool	DE	Exp.	Act.	Diff.
1	MCAFEE Jada	V V V V V V	V V V V	5.0	6	+1.0
2	FAN Alexandria	V V V V V V	V V V D	5.7	6	+0.3
3	MAJEWSKA Maria	D V V V V	V V D	3.3	4	+0.7
3	YADAV Tishya	V V V D D	V V D	3.4	3	-0.4
5	GUO Yuexi	V V V V V	V D	2.7	5	+2.3
6	LIU Teresa	D V D V V V	V D	2.3	4	+1.7
7	HU Emily	V D V D D V	V D	3.4	3	-0.4
8	PHILLIPPY Hannah	V D D V D	V D	2.4	2	-0.4
9	WANG Emily	D V V D V V	D	2.8	4	+1.2
9	TOPALOV Julia	V V D V V D	D	3.8	4	+0.2
11	LIU Alyssa	D V V V V D	D	2.5	4	+1.5
12	WANG Selina	V V V V D D	D	2.0	4	+2.0
13	TA-ZHOU Sophia	D D V D V D	V D	3.8	2	-1.8
14	SAGER Bianca	V D D D D V	V D	1.7	2	+0.3
15	FLEEGER Sophia	V D D D D D	V D	3.5	1	-2.5
16	ONO Lisa	D D D D D V	V D	2.5	1	-1.5
17	HILTON Penelope	D D D D V	D	0.3	1	+0.7
18	JEON Kristen	D D V D D D	D	0.9	1	+0.1
19	ARIF Haniya	D D D D D D	D	2.1	0	-2.1
20	CAMPISE Sophia	D D D D D	D	2.9	0	-2.9

Legend

Color coded boxes represent the outcome against opponents of varying difficulty levels from the perspective of the fencer. Letters inside the boxes indicate victory (V) and defeat (D).

Outcome	Opponent's Difficulty	Probability of Victory
Victory	Very Hard	0% to 20%
Victory	Hard	20% to 40%
Victory	Roughly Even	40% to 60%
Victory	Easy	60% to 80%
Victory	Very Easy	80% to 100%
Defeat	Very Hard	0% to 20%
Defeat	Hard	20% to 40%
Defeat	Roughly Even	40% to 60%
Defeat	Easy	60% to 80%
Defeat	Very Easy	80% to 100%

Explanation

The visual cues provided in this table highlight bouts that may be considered surprises based on the relative strengths of the competitors:

Wins against significantly stronger opponents stand out as impressive feats and are marked in bright green.
Conversely, defeats against opponents who were perceived to be much easier are indicated in bright red, signaling an unexpected loss.
The color gradation from red to green provides an intuitive sense of the degree of surprise in each bout outcome. The closer to gray, the more the outcome was in line with expectations.

This visualization is designed to give both fencers and spectators an immediate sense of the unexpected outcomes of the competition. While every bout has its unique circumstances, these indicators can help highlight moments where a fencer overcame the odds or where there was an unexpected turn of events.