Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Junior Women's Épée

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 12:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	OLELE Ifechi	-	-	2%	12%	39%	48%
2	QI Julieanne	-	-	-	1%	9%	38%	52%
3	AZAD Ava	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
3	CHEN Ava	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
5	ZHENG Erin	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
6	MARISI Gianna	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
7	LI Xier	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	1%
8	LEVKOV Maita	2%	14%	33%	35%	15%	2%
9	NOLAN Sophia	-	2%	14%	37%	37%	11%
10	SUNMAN Rory	-	9%	34%	39%	17%	2%
11	HAGERMAN Siona	4%	27%	40%	23%	6%	-
12	KWON Claire	3%	18%	37%	30%	11%	2%	-
13	ANDRADE OSINAGA Sophia	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%
15	BECKMAN Amaya	1%	5%	22%	38%	28%	6%
16	ALVAREZ Martine	3%	20%	42%	30%	6%
17	COMBS Hannah	2%	17%	38%	32%	10%	1%
18	SILVA Hailey	3%	24%	43%	26%	4%
19	REARDON Isabella	5%	29%	42%	21%	3%
20	SHIN Jamie	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	-
21	PENHOET Evelyn	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	14%	1%
22	NANAYAKKARA Sanuthi	-	4%	24%	41%	26%	5%
23	PRAVEEN Nehara	12%	37%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
24	DROLET Julia	54%	36%	9%	1%	-
25	BERGMANN Beatrix	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	18%
26	IBRAHIM Layla	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
27	YOON Elsa	17%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
28	KALI Aiana	11%	48%	32%	8%	1%	-
29	CHAO Kira	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
30	HOWARD Brielle	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-	-
31	IYENGAR Sthuthi	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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