Fairfax Challenge ROC, RJCC, RYC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Sunday, January 4, 2026 at 3:30 PM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 ZHANG Eric - 1% 8% 28% 42% 21%
2 TAK Kion 3% 22% 45% 28% 2%
3 ARTETA-CHEVALIER Ulysse - - 1% 8% 36% 55%
3 THOMAS Tre - - 4% 20% 44% 32%
5 CARD Ewan 1% 10% 28% 36% 20% 4%
6 LAN Jasper 3% 19% 40% 31% 7%
7 PERKINS, JR LeVar - - 5% 23% 46% 26%
8 NEPPALLI Dhruv - 4% 19% 36% 31% 9%
9 RINALDI Benigno - 1% 9% 29% 42% 18%
10 CHOI Clayton 4% 21% 39% 29% 8% 1%
11 KELLY Collin - 2% 14% 37% 38% 9%
12 GUO Joe 5% 24% 38% 26% 7% 1%
13 SVERDLOV Max 11% 34% 36% 16% 3%
14 SAFAI Bardia 22% 41% 28% 8% 1% -
15 TAK Sion 4% 22% 38% 27% 8% 1%
16 BECKER Grayson - 2% 11% 31% 38% 18%
17 PETROSYAN Aleksander 2% 12% 31% 35% 17% 3%
18 MCCABE Donovan 2% 17% 37% 32% 10% 1%
19 LEE Augustine 14% 41% 35% 10% 1% -
20 ZHAO Evan 29% 42% 23% 5% 1% -
21 XIE Andy 4% 22% 38% 27% 7% 1%
22 WANG Thomas 20% 41% 29% 9% 1%
23 CHEN Remsen 8% 31% 38% 19% 3% -
24 BROWN Nash 29% 42% 23% 6% 1% -
25 THORNTON Jackson 6% 26% 38% 23% 6% -
26 HUANG Max 9% 33% 36% 17% 4% -
27 ROSENBLATT-HOERST Simon < 1% 6% 27% 43% 24%
28 ZHU Jackie < 1% 12% 38% 37% 12% 1%
29 FERRARO Antonio 37% 42% 17% 3% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.