Mary Rafanelli RYC/RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Monday, January 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	XIE Su	-	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	29%
2	ARYA Leela	-	5%	21%	37%	28%	8%	1%
3	KIM Sydney	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	65%
3	YAO Abby	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
5	SAIFEE Lamya	-	-	-	-	7%	38%	55%
6	ZEE Savannah	-	1%	6%	23%	40%	27%	4%
7	ZHOU Joi	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	18%
8	YANG Hanli	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	6%
9	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
10	FANG Kelervia	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	4%
11	VILLARAMA Kara	-	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	25%
12	WU Chingfei Amber	-	-	-	5%	21%	42%	31%
13	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	-	-	4%	26%	51%	18%
14	PEDERSEN Haley	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
15	LEE Abigail	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
16	LI Sophia	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
17	KIM Natalie	-	-	6%	29%	45%	17%	2%
18	DENG Claire	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
19	THERON Zoe	-	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
20	MIYOSHI Kylie	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
21	ZHANG Viviana	-	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
22	MONAT Jennifer	-	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	4%
23	JIN Jada Y	-	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
24	LUCAS Ava	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
25	DVOIRIS Maya	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-	-
26	TAN Shouyin	-	4%	24%	44%	24%	4%	-
27	TEWARI Amaira	1%	14%	35%	33%	14%	2%	-
28	SHUM Maya	-	2%	9%	25%	35%	23%	5%
29	KIM Lauren	2%	16%	35%	32%	12%	2%	-
30	AHN Hayley	11%	36%	35%	14%	3%	-
31	MCLANAHAN Jasmine	2%	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
32	LIM Kensie	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
33	CHOI Sophie	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
34	VOROBIEV Alexandra	4%	24%	40%	25%	7%	1%	-
35	BHANGOO Paloma	7%	32%	39%	18%	4%	-	-
36	LING Camryn	2%	28%	45%	20%	3%	-	-
37	LI Chelsea	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
38	WILLIAMSON Tessa	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
39	LAY Apollonia	-	2%	10%	29%	38%	19%	2%
40	WANG Ellen	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-
41	LAVERY Lucy	5%	26%	38%	24%	7%	1%	-
42	YU Xintong	42%	41%	15%	3%	-	-
43	CHANG Janelle	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%
44	IRELAND Moira	4%	36%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
45	GUTIERREZ Gia	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-	-
46	CHO Rylee	74%	23%	3%	-	-	-	-
47	BROWN Favianna	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.