Capitol Clash SYC/RCC & Y8

Y-12 Men's Saber

Monday, January 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM

Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center - National Harbor, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 YI Andrew - - - 1% 8% 35% 56%
2 ZALETAEV Jacob - - - 2% 14% 40% 44%
3 LEVY Daniel - - - 4% 27% 69%
3 ISAYENKO Daniel - - - 2% 21% 78%
5 KAUL Ishaan - - 1% 6% 25% 42% 26%
5 KOREN George - - - 1% 9% 34% 56%
5 HUA George (Hanxun) - - 3% 13% 31% 37% 17%
8 DUFF Michael - 2% 13% 31% 34% 17% 3%
9 CHEN Brian - 5% 18% 33% 29% 12% 2%
10 KUANG Cyrus - - 6% 23% 37% 27% 7%
11 SHAPIRO Leo - - - 4% 20% 43% 33%
12 ARTETA-CHEVALIER Ulysse - - 3% 12% 30% 37% 18%
13 MOGUNOV Alan - - 3% 14% 33% 36% 14%
14 HAHN EVER - - 1% 6% 24% 43% 27%
15 LIM JUWANA Maximilian - - 1% 7% 24% 41% 27%
16 LI Lucas - 5% 18% 32% 30% 14% 2%
17 NARAYAN Rishi - - 2% 10% 27% 39% 22%
18 TERENTIEV Michael - - 1% 9% 29% 41% 19%
19 SCHWARTZMAN Jakub - 1% 11% 38% 43% 6%
20 HENDERSON Louis - - - 2% 13% 41% 43%
21 LAN Jasper - 1% 10% 30% 37% 19% 3%
22 PARK Sean - 1% 8% 25% 37% 24% 4%
22 ZHANG Howard - - 4% 19% 38% 30% 8%
24 FU BRANDEN - 1% 5% 18% 34% 31% 11%
25 ZHAO Alexander 1% 7% 21% 33% 26% 11% 2%
25 LLOYD Max - 3% 15% 32% 32% 14% 2%
27 LU Hanwen - - 2% 9% 26% 40% 24%
28 CAO HAOTIAN - - 2% 13% 32% 37% 15%
28 ZHANG Weihang - 4% 16% 33% 32% 13% 2%
30 SUN Leonard - 2% 11% 27% 34% 20% 5%
31 PARK Layne - 1% 8% 26% 37% 23% 5%
32 RISMAN Edward - 1% 10% 29% 36% 20% 4%
33 THOMAS Tre - 1% 7% 23% 36% 26% 7%
34 CIECIEREGA MATTHEW - - 2% 11% 33% 41% 14%
35 FAVO Christopher - 1% 7% 25% 38% 25% 5%
36 ZHANG Caleb - 1% 6% 21% 36% 28% 8%
37 LAI Mars - 1% 9% 24% 35% 24% 6%
38 CHEN Ryan - 4% 18% 32% 30% 13% 2%
39 LUO Gavin - 5% 18% 32% 29% 13% 2%
40 ALUF William - - - 2% 13% 40% 45%
41 GILBERT Ari - 1% 8% 26% 38% 24% 4%
42 LEE Aiden - 3% 13% 29% 33% 18% 4%
42 CHEN Luca - - 3% 15% 34% 35% 12%
44 PERKINS, JR LeVar - 1% 10% 30% 36% 19% 4%
46 GUCCIARDI Francesco - 2% 9% 25% 34% 24% 6%
47 WANG Harrison 4% 18% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
48 YANG Aegon - 5% 20% 35% 29% 11% 1%
49 WANG Russell - 1% 6% 20% 35% 30% 10%
50 LIU Nico 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1%
51 LIU Dylan 5% 23% 36% 26% 9% 1% -
52 TABANCAY Cole - - 4% 18% 35% 32% 11%
53 SABINO Bennett 1% 13% 34% 33% 15% 3% -
54 RINALDI Benigno - 1% 6% 23% 39% 26% 5%
55 HU Simon - - - 3% 16% 41% 39%
56 ZHANG Mark 1% 8% 26% 35% 23% 6% 1%
56 OH Caleb 9% 29% 35% 20% 6% 1% -
58 CHUNG Evan - 3% 14% 29% 32% 18% 4%
59 LEIGH Anthony 4% 22% 39% 28% 8% -
60 STYS Owen - 1% 9% 26% 37% 23% 4%
61 ATA Kevin 1% 6% 19% 33% 28% 12% 2%
62 IP Hunter - 1% 7% 23% 37% 26% 6%
63 CHUNG Liam 10% 35% 35% 16% 4% - -
64 LIU Jeremy - 1% 5% 19% 36% 31% 9%
65 KO-GALLOWAY Keaton 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 1%
66 ZHANG Edison Ji - 1% 6% 19% 33% 30% 11%
67 LI Felix 13% 37% 35% 13% 2% - -
68 BABY Henry - 5% 17% 31% 30% 14% 3%
69 NEPPALLI Dhruv - 4% 20% 37% 29% 9% 1%
70 MOTOV Max - 1% 8% 23% 35% 25% 7%
71 SHARMA KRISH 4% 23% 40% 25% 7% 1% -
71 ALLEN Parker - 10% 36% 40% 13% 1%
73 LI Anton 1% 11% 30% 34% 18% 4% -
74 TIAGI Ronald 1% 6% 23% 36% 25% 8% 1%
75 JI Derek 1% 10% 29% 38% 19% 2%
76 TAK Kion - 2% 11% 26% 34% 21% 5%
77 YE Aaron - 1% 5% 18% 34% 31% 11%
78 MARTIRE Francis 2% 11% 31% 37% 17% 2%
79 ODIOEMENE Jidenna 4% 19% 34% 29% 12% 2% -
80 BROOKS Grant 2% 13% 30% 33% 18% 4% -
80 GOLDSTEIN Malcolm 4% 19% 34% 28% 12% 2% -
82 LEE Augustine 3% 17% 35% 30% 13% 2% -
83 SOLEJ Miles - 1% 5% 18% 34% 32% 11%
84 TO Aiden - 2% 12% 28% 34% 20% 4%
85 LIUZHANG Ben 1% 8% 24% 34% 25% 8% 1%
86 FERNAINE Thomas 1% 14% 41% 35% 9% -
87 LEE Shane Gunn - 3% 15% 32% 33% 14% 2%
88 RIMMELE Sven Yan 1% 8% 27% 37% 22% 5% -
89 WANG Henrik - 1% 7% 23% 36% 26% 7%
89 BECKER Grayson - 4% 16% 32% 32% 14% 2%
89 WOLLOW Bennett 1% 8% 26% 35% 23% 7% 1%
89 GUO Joe 18% 37% 30% 12% 3% - -
93 GUO Aiden 12% 31% 33% 18% 5% 1% -
94 BOOKER Gavin 23% 42% 27% 8% 1% -
95 PETROSYAN Aleksander 9% 29% 35% 21% 6% 1% -
96 BAIER Leon 12% 33% 33% 16% 4% 1% -
97 VINCENT Yian 3% 15% 31% 31% 16% 4% -
98 BURCH III Andrew J. - 1% 9% 29% 36% 21% 5%
99 LI Derek 3% 16% 33% 30% 14% 3% -
100 ADOLPHUS March 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 9% 1%
101 SUH Jordan 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 1%
101 MIKHAILOV Andrei - 3% 16% 34% 33% 13% 2%
101 LI Jaylen William - 4% 17% 36% 30% 11% 1%
104 CHEN Donovan 4% 21% 36% 27% 10% 2% -
105 MCCABE Donovan 13% 34% 33% 15% 3% - -
106 ILICHEV Timur - 3% 13% 30% 33% 17% 3%
107 KELLY Collin 1% 11% 29% 33% 19% 5% 1%
108 NORTON Hudson 3% 21% 37% 27% 10% 2% -
108 KIM Colin 3% 17% 33% 31% 13% 3% -
110 QIAO Jason 1% 11% 32% 35% 17% 3% -
111 ZHANG Leon - 2% 10% 30% 36% 18% 3%
112 HAMM Bennett 1% 8% 25% 35% 24% 7% 1%
114 SHEK-WEI Wesley 10% 36% 35% 15% 3% - -
115 CARD Ewan 7% 26% 35% 23% 8% 1% -
116 PALERMO Evan 4% 19% 33% 28% 13% 3% -
117 CONSTANTINE Leonidas 1% 11% 31% 34% 18% 5% -
118 KULJIEV Boyan 15% 36% 32% 14% 3% - -
119 TAK Sion 10% 34% 36% 16% 4% - -
120 JOHNSON Leyton 3% 16% 31% 30% 15% 4% -
121 LI Nathan 1% 7% 24% 35% 25% 7% 1%
122 ROSTHOLDER Ethan 9% 28% 35% 21% 6% 1% -
123 KWON Joon 4% 23% 37% 26% 8% 1% -
124 ARRANT Jordan 11% 34% 36% 16% 3% -
125 WANG Thomas 13% 34% 34% 16% 4% - -
126 GHIM Ethan 4% 19% 34% 29% 12% 2% -
127 FELLOWS Riley 39% 42% 16% 3% - - -
128 MANGINI Lorenzo 1% 11% 27% 33% 21% 7% 1%
129 BABY Jacob 10% 30% 35% 19% 6% 1% -
130 LEE Augustine 28% 41% 24% 7% 1% - -
131 BELTRAN-PRATS Enzo 2% 13% 29% 33% 18% 5% -
132 TIAN Michael 40% 40% 16% 4% - - -
133 HUANG Joseph 17% 36% 31% 13% 3% - -
134 PARRISH Lucien 5% 24% 37% 25% 8% 1% -
134 CHEN Remsen 5% 28% 39% 22% 5% 1% -
136 RAJMOHAN Syon 15% 39% 34% 11% 2% - -
137 GOEL Edrian 27% 43% 23% 5% 1% - -
138 WONG Jacob 4% 19% 34% 28% 12% 2% -
139 THEETHIRA Kevin-Cariappa 8% 30% 36% 20% 5% 1% -
140 FIGUS Fabio 35% 43% 19% 4% - - -
141 YEAZEL Reid 7% 42% 38% 12% 1% -
142 LEE Weston 33% 42% 20% 4% - - -
143 GUI Kyle 46% 40% 12% 2% - - -
144 KHAN Zorayz 59% 34% 7% 1% - - -
145 TSE Cooper 24% 59% 15% 2% - - -
146 SVERDLOV Max 9% 30% 36% 19% 5% 1% -
147 SWORDS Frank 10% 30% 35% 20% 6% 1% -
147 SINGH Yohan 62% 35% 3% - - - -
149 ZHAO Evan 18% 42% 30% 9% 1% - -
149 TURNER Luke 27% 41% 24% 7% 1% - -
151 ROSENBLATT-HOERST Simon 15% 37% 32% 13% 2% - -
152 KENYON Harrison 25% 40% 25% 8% 1% - -
153 FERRARO Antonio 53% 36% 9% 1% - - -
153 SKOLNIK Leo 73% 25% 3% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.