Capitol Clash SYC/RCC & Y8

Y-12 Men's Saber

Monday, January 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM

Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center - National Harbor, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 YI Andrew 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 56%
2 ZALETAEV Jacob 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 44%
3 LEVY Daniel 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 69%
3 ISAYENKO Daniel 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 78%
5 KAUL Ishaan 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 68% 26%
5 KOREN George 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 56%
5 HUA George (Hanxun) 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 53% 17%
8 DUFF Michael 100% 100% 98% 85% 54% 20% 3%
9 CHEN Brian 100% 100% 95% 76% 43% 14% 2%
10 KUANG Cyrus 100% 100% 100% 94% 71% 34% 7%
11 SHAPIRO Leo 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 76% 33%
12 ARTETA-CHEVALIER Ulysse 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 55% 18%
13 MOGUNOV Alan 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 50% 14%
14 HAHN EVER 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 27%
15 LIM JUWANA Maximilian 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 27%
16 LI Lucas 100% 100% 95% 77% 45% 16% 2%
17 NARAYAN Rishi 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 61% 22%
18 TERENTIEV Michael 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 61% 19%
19 SCHWARTZMAN Jakub 100% 100% 99% 87% 49% 6%
20 HENDERSON Louis 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 43%
21 LAN Jasper 100% 100% 99% 89% 59% 22% 3%
22 PARK Sean 100% 100% 99% 90% 65% 28% 4%
22 ZHANG Howard 100% 100% 100% 95% 76% 38% 8%
24 FU BRANDEN 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 42% 11%
25 ZHAO Alexander 100% 99% 93% 72% 39% 13% 2%
25 LLOYD Max 100% 100% 96% 81% 49% 17% 2%
27 LU Hanwen 100% 100% 100% 98% 90% 64% 24%
28 CAO HAOTIAN 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 15%
28 ZHANG Weihang 100% 100% 96% 80% 47% 15% 2%
30 SUN Leonard 100% 100% 98% 86% 59% 25% 5%
31 PARK Layne 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 28% 5%
32 RISMAN Edward 100% 100% 99% 90% 60% 24% 4%
33 THOMAS Tre 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 33% 7%
34 CIECIEREGA MATTHEW 100% 100% 100% 98% 87% 55% 14%
35 FAVO Christopher 100% 100% 99% 92% 67% 29% 5%
36 ZHANG Caleb 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 36% 8%
37 LAI Mars 100% 100% 98% 90% 65% 30% 6%
38 CHEN Ryan 100% 100% 95% 78% 45% 15% 2%
39 LUO Gavin 100% 100% 95% 77% 44% 15% 2%
40 ALUF William 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 45%
41 GILBERT Ari 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 28% 4%
42 LEE Aiden 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 22% 4%
42 CHEN Luca 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 47% 12%
44 PERKINS, JR LeVar 100% 100% 99% 89% 59% 23% 4%
46 GUCCIARDI Francesco 100% 100% 98% 89% 64% 30% 6%
47 WANG Harrison 100% 96% 78% 45% 17% 3% -
48 YANG Aegon 100% 100% 95% 75% 40% 12% 1%
49 WANG Russell 100% 100% 99% 93% 74% 39% 10%
50 LIU Nico 100% 99% 91% 67% 33% 9% 1%
51 LIU Dylan 100% 95% 72% 35% 10% 1% -
52 TABANCAY Cole 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 42% 11%
53 SABINO Bennett 100% 99% 85% 51% 18% 3% -
54 RINALDI Benigno 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 31% 5%
55 HU Simon 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 39%
56 ZHANG Mark 100% 99% 91% 65% 29% 7% 1%
56 OH Caleb 100% 91% 62% 27% 7% 1% -
58 CHUNG Evan 100% 100% 97% 83% 54% 21% 4%
59 LEIGH Anthony 100% 96% 74% 36% 8% -
60 STYS Owen 100% 100% 99% 90% 63% 27% 4%
61 ATA Kevin 100% 99% 94% 74% 42% 14% 2%
62 IP Hunter 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 32% 6%
63 CHUNG Liam 100% 90% 55% 20% 4% - -
64 LIU Jeremy 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 39% 9%
65 KO-GALLOWAY Keaton 100% 99% 93% 73% 38% 11% 1%
66 ZHANG Edison Ji 100% 100% 99% 93% 74% 41% 11%
67 LI Felix 100% 87% 49% 15% 2% - -
68 BABY Henry 100% 100% 95% 78% 47% 17% 3%
69 NEPPALLI Dhruv 100% 100% 96% 76% 39% 10% 1%
70 MOTOV Max 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 32% 7%
71 SHARMA KRISH 100% 96% 72% 32% 7% 1% -
71 ALLEN Parker 100% 100% 90% 54% 14% 1%
73 LI Anton 100% 99% 87% 57% 23% 5% -
74 TIAGI Ronald 100% 99% 93% 70% 34% 9% 1%
75 JI Derek 100% 99% 89% 60% 21% 2%
76 TAK Kion 100% 100% 98% 87% 60% 26% 5%
77 YE Aaron 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 42% 11%
78 MARTIRE Francis 100% 98% 87% 56% 19% 2%
79 ODIOEMENE Jidenna 100% 96% 77% 43% 14% 2% -
80 BROOKS Grant 100% 98% 85% 55% 22% 5% -
80 GOLDSTEIN Malcolm 100% 96% 76% 43% 15% 2% -
82 LEE Augustine 100% 97% 80% 46% 15% 3% -
83 SOLEJ Miles 100% 100% 99% 95% 77% 43% 11%
84 TO Aiden 100% 100% 97% 86% 58% 24% 4%
85 LIUZHANG Ben 100% 99% 91% 67% 33% 9% 1%
86 FERNAINE Thomas 100% 99% 85% 44% 9% -
87 LEE Shane Gunn 100% 100% 96% 81% 49% 16% 2%
88 RIMMELE Sven Yan 100% 99% 91% 64% 27% 5% -
89 WANG Henrik 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 33% 7%
89 BECKER Grayson 100% 100% 96% 80% 48% 16% 2%
89 WOLLOW Bennett 100% 99% 91% 66% 30% 7% 1%
89 GUO Joe 100% 82% 45% 15% 3% - -
93 GUO Aiden 100% 88% 57% 24% 6% 1% -
94 BOOKER Gavin 100% 77% 35% 8% 1% -
95 PETROSYAN Aleksander 100% 91% 63% 27% 7% 1% -
96 BAIER Leon 100% 88% 54% 21% 5% 1% -
97 VINCENT Yian 100% 97% 81% 51% 20% 4% -
98 BURCH III Andrew J. 100% 100% 99% 90% 62% 25% 5%
99 LI Derek 100% 97% 81% 48% 18% 4% -
100 ADOLPHUS March 100% 99% 92% 68% 34% 10% 1%
101 SUH Jordan 100% 99% 93% 72% 38% 12% 1%
101 MIKHAILOV Andrei 100% 100% 97% 81% 48% 15% 2%
101 LI Jaylen William 100% 100% 96% 79% 43% 12% 1%
104 CHEN Donovan 100% 96% 75% 39% 11% 2% -
105 MCCABE Donovan 100% 87% 52% 19% 4% - -
106 ILICHEV Timur 100% 100% 97% 83% 54% 21% 3%
107 KELLY Collin 100% 99% 87% 58% 25% 6% 1%
108 NORTON Hudson 100% 97% 75% 39% 11% 2% -
108 KIM Colin 100% 97% 80% 47% 16% 3% -
110 QIAO Jason 100% 99% 88% 56% 20% 3% -
111 ZHANG Leon 100% 100% 98% 88% 58% 21% 3%
112 HAMM Bennett 100% 99% 91% 66% 31% 7% 1%
114 SHEK-WEI Wesley 100% 90% 54% 19% 3% - -
115 CARD Ewan 100% 93% 67% 32% 9% 1% -
116 PALERMO Evan 100% 96% 77% 45% 16% 3% -
117 CONSTANTINE Leonidas 100% 99% 88% 57% 23% 5% -
118 KULJIEV Boyan 100% 85% 49% 17% 3% - -
119 TAK Sion 100% 90% 56% 20% 4% - -
120 JOHNSON Leyton 100% 97% 80% 49% 19% 4% -
121 LI Nathan 100% 99% 92% 68% 32% 8% 1%
122 ROSTHOLDER Ethan 100% 91% 63% 27% 7% 1% -
123 KWON Joon 100% 96% 73% 36% 10% 1% -
124 ARRANT Jordan 100% 89% 55% 20% 3% -
125 WANG Thomas 100% 87% 53% 20% 4% - -
126 GHIM Ethan 100% 96% 78% 43% 15% 3% -
127 FELLOWS Riley 100% 61% 19% 3% - - -
128 MANGINI Lorenzo 100% 99% 88% 61% 28% 8% 1%
129 BABY Jacob 100% 90% 61% 26% 6% 1% -
130 LEE Augustine 100% 72% 31% 7% 1% - -
131 BELTRAN-PRATS Enzo 100% 98% 85% 56% 23% 5% -
132 TIAN Michael 100% 60% 20% 4% - - -
133 HUANG Joseph 100% 83% 47% 16% 3% - -
134 PARRISH Lucien 100% 95% 70% 33% 9% 1% -
134 CHEN Remsen 100% 95% 67% 28% 6% 1% -
136 RAJMOHAN Syon 100% 85% 47% 13% 2% - -
137 GOEL Edrian 100% 73% 29% 6% 1% - -
138 WONG Jacob 100% 96% 77% 43% 14% 3% -
139 THEETHIRA Kevin-Cariappa 100% 92% 62% 26% 6% 1% -
140 FIGUS Fabio 100% 65% 22% 4% - - -
141 YEAZEL Reid 100% 93% 51% 13% 1% -
142 LEE Weston 100% 67% 25% 5% - - -
143 GUI Kyle 100% 54% 14% 2% - - -
144 KHAN Zorayz 100% 41% 8% 1% - - -
145 TSE Cooper 100% 76% 17% 2% - - -
146 SVERDLOV Max 100% 91% 61% 25% 6% 1% -
147 SWORDS Frank 100% 90% 61% 26% 7% 1% -
147 SINGH Yohan 100% 38% 3% - - - -
149 ZHAO Evan 100% 82% 39% 10% 1% - -
149 TURNER Luke 100% 73% 32% 8% 1% - -
151 ROSENBLATT-HOERST Simon 100% 85% 48% 15% 3% - -
152 KENYON Harrison 100% 75% 34% 9% 1% - -
153 FERRARO Antonio 100% 47% 11% 1% - - -
153 SKOLNIK Leo 100% 27% 3% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.