2026 RedStar Winter Classic

Senior Mixed Foil

Saturday, February 7, 2026 at 8:00 AM

RedStar Fencing Club - Chicago, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MORA Johan	-	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	14%
2	SCHULZE-KALT Graydon	-	-	2%	18%	48%	31%
3	CHUANG Oscar	-	3%	18%	42%	32%	5%
3	EDWARDS Connor	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%	1%
5	JU Alexander	-	-	-	1%	7%	33%	60%
6	DUBOISKI Siarhei	-	-	-	2%	41%	58%
7	KATWAN Adam	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
8	SMITH Erick	-	-	4%	17%	38%	35%	6%
9	WILEY Conor	1%	16%	46%	35%	2%	-
10	MILLER Douglas	-	-	3%	19%	42%	31%	5%
11	HONG Derek	5%	39%	43%	13%	1%	-
12	CAO Leon	-	-	-	6%	58%	36%
13	ZMUDA Aiden	1%	18%	49%	31%	1%	-
14	SHI Boris	2%	27%	46%	22%	3%	-
15	DAVIS Benjamin	20%	48%	27%	5%	-	-
15	YU Leo	1%	15%	44%	32%	8%	-
17	DURHAM Porter	1%	15%	38%	32%	11%	2%	-
18	SWOPE Farren	-	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
19	BROUGHAM Samuel	-	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
20	KAIHATSU Edward	1%	7%	25%	40%	24%	3%
21	LI Andy	3%	23%	39%	27%	8%	1%	-
22	GREEN Nate	1%	11%	32%	37%	16%	2%
23	MUMFORD Josh	2%	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-
24	PANKOTAI Alexander	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-	-
25	HAVRIUSHENKO Vladyslava	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
26	METZ Evan	5%	44%	40%	10%	-	-
27	NOWICKI William	79%	19%	1%	-	-	-
28	KASHUBA Nazar	4%	20%	38%	28%	9%	1%	-
29	LEYLAND John	-	14%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
29	GU Jonathan	63%	34%	3%	-	-	-	-
31	LEE Katherine	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
32	GONZALEZ Eddy	< 1%	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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