SoCal Scholastic League MIDDLE SCHOOL Individual Epee/Saber #2

Middle School Women's Epee

Saturday, February 7, 2026 at 8:30 AM

Chaminade High School - Chatsworth, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	ARNOLD Evangeline	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
2	KIM Vivian	-	-	2%	9%	26%	38%	24%	1%
3	LU Chu	1%	8%	25%	35%	24%	6%
3	LICHTENFELD Naomi	-	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
5	FLYNN Kensington	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
6	HUANG Sophie	2%	10%	24%	31%	23%	9%	2%	-
7	PARKE Jaime	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
8	MOELLER Clara	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	9%
9	KLEIN Isabel	8%	26%	34%	22%	8%	1%	-	-
10	PADILLA ENGLER Siena	21%	45%	29%	5%	< 1%	-	-
11	SCHWARTZMAN Avital	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
12	KLINE Emeline	43%	43%	13%	1%	-	-
13	UTTAMCHANDANI Aria	1%	6%	19%	30%	27%	13%	3%	-
14	HOFFMAN-DEBLASE Katherine	-	2%	15%	35%	35%	13%
15	BAKER Margaux Major	-	1%	8%	27%	39%	22%	3%
16	KEDAN Carmella	14%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
17	CHERIAN Asha	-	4%	19%	33%	29%	13%	2%
18	ANGLE Georgia	-	3%	14%	30%	32%	16%	4%	-
20	GRAY Olive	1%	8%	27%	35%	22%	6%	1%
21	FINCH Autumn	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
22	LEWERKE Leela	-	3%	13%	29%	32%	18%	4%
23	BOTTINI Livia	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	4%
24	HILL Penelope	-	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	3%
25	SPITZER Kenzi	-	5%	19%	32%	28%	13%	3%	-
26	ORLANDO Zoe	-	< 1%	3%	13%	28%	32%	18%	4%
27	JONES Priscilla	-	5%	18%	31%	28%	14%	4%	-
28	JONES Olive	< 1%	15%	36%	33%	13%	2%
28	HUIE Peyton	2%	10%	26%	33%	22%	7%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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