Mission RYC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Saturday, February 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JU Jennifer	-	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	33%
2	CHAKRAPANI Tara	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
3	HAN Emma	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	25%
3	SHEN Sophia	6%	27%	40%	23%	5%	-
5	WU Evelyn	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
6	YIN Elaine	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	1%
7	WARD Imani	-	4%	17%	33%	30%	13%	2%
8	CHEN Laila	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
9	XU Mulan	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	23%
10	BOUTSIKARIS Asha	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%	-
11	YOUNG Penelope	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	6%
12	KAKANI Aditi	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
13	YANG ZIMO	-	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
14	KIM Charlotte	1%	7%	25%	36%	24%	6%	-
15	XIE ANDREA	-	-	5%	23%	45%	27%
16	GRUDZINSKI Josephine	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
17	ADEN Aurora	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
18	GOTSABINA Elizabeth	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	8%
19	PATEL Aria	2%	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%
20	TANG Jacquelyn	3%	15%	32%	32%	16%	3%
21	CHEN Madeline	-	-	2%	9%	28%	39%	22%
22	CHOI Elina	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
23	KUO Stella	1%	12%	31%	33%	18%	4%	-
24	LEE Zoe	3%	17%	37%	31%	10%	1%
25	CHEN Reina	2%	14%	34%	35%	14%	2%
26	LIU Brinley	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
27	YOON Cora	-	4%	17%	34%	32%	12%	1%
28	XI Emily	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
29	PATEL Agena	1%	11%	32%	37%	16%	2%
30	SALUBRO Vivianna	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
31	YUSHCHENKO Ivanka	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
32	XU Yunshu	8%	31%	38%	19%	4%	-
33	GURTIN Sasha	10%	30%	35%	20%	5%	1%
34	ZHENG Kristen	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	22%	5%
35	CHOI Serine	56%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
36	SULLIVAN Adela	14%	37%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
37	SELASSIE Semara	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
38	LIN Amber	7%	35%	38%	17%	3%	-
39	GARZON Laura	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
40	CHANG Emma	11%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-
41	MAO Faith	9%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-	-
42	DARMAWAN Thea	50%	37%	11%	2%	-	-	-
43	YULO Margaux	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
44	LUO MAOSHUEN	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
45	NYE Emma	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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