W&M Conomikes-Gutenberg Memorial Open 2026

Div III Mixed Saber

Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 4:00 PM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BENE Andrew	-	2%	11%	29%	39%	19%
2	WANG Ziyao	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%	1%
3	HEANEY Sam	-	1%	4%	16%	32%	33%	14%
3	BENE Paul	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
5	LIAO Sirui	-	2%	14%	37%	37%	9%
6	VU Mark	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
7	SU Ji	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	25%
8	WALKER Terra	-	3%	18%	40%	32%	7%
9	BRAMLETT Myer	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	6%
10	SUTHERLAND Jr. Richard L.	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
11	OTT William	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	-
12	LAWLESS Elizabeth	7%	33%	39%	17%	3%	-	-
13	ALLEN Asa	-	1%	11%	33%	38%	15%	1%
14	MUSICK Takoda	18%	40%	31%	9%	1%	-
15	HOWERTON Beckett	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	11%	1%
16	FRUTH Evan	-	5%	19%	36%	31%	10%
17	FANG Darcy	14%	33%	32%	16%	4%	1%	-
18	SEMP Brannon A.	-	-	1%	14%	45%	39%
19	EVELYN Wyatt	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
20	PODDAR Shameek	1%	8%	28%	40%	21%	3%
21	WERNER Alexander	3%	19%	38%	31%	9%	1%
22	OWEN Alexander	-	-	3%	21%	57%	19%
23	DADIO Daniel	-	3%	14%	35%	36%	12%
24	BELL Gabriel	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
25	MOFFITT William	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
26	GIPE Caleb	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
27	RIVABEM William	-	4%	22%	44%	27%	4%
28	SAE-TUNG Kevin	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-
29	SCHUPPIN Charles	36%	44%	17%	3%	-	-
30	SILK Ryan	23%	46%	26%	5%	-	-
30	ZHU Samuel	1%	27%	49%	20%	3%	-
32	DIEBLER Noah	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
33	CLEMMONS William	17%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-
34	SHELLY Emery	15%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
35	JOSHI Sanika	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	8%	1%
36	JOHNSON Adelyn	12%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-
37	DEWEEVER Aidan	< 1%	5%	19%	32%	28%	12%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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