9th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC & RJCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Friday, February 27, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Happy Stages - North Hollywood, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DU Evan	-	-	-	-	2%	22%	75%
2	MOSLEY Wally	-	-	-	1%	8%	37%	55%
3	YOO Lucas	-	-	3%	12%	31%	38%	16%
3	LEE Lucas	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
5	LI Vance	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
6	LIU Yihong	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	23%
7	TENG Eric	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
8	LO Stefan	4%	20%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
9	WU Nathan	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
10	WONG Kyle	-	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
11	SHIH Derek	-	3%	18%	37%	32%	9%
12	CHU Clayton	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
13	LI Connor	2%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
14	SUN Jerry	-	1%	6%	23%	43%	28%
15	YOON Ian	-	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%
16	GUO Jonathan	-	1%	6%	26%	42%	22%	3%
17	YI Alexander	-	-	2%	14%	38%	37%	8%
18	FU Benjamin	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%	2%
19	YUN Mason	-	5%	30%	42%	20%	3%
20	LIU Aiden	-	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%
21	DAI Greyson	48%	44%	8%	< 1%	-	-
22	PARK Sean	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%
23	ZHAO Luke	1%	8%	26%	37%	22%	5%	-
24	ELARDO Griffin	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	18%	3%
25	LIU William	2%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%	-
26	LI Stephen	-	1%	13%	38%	38%	10%
27	LI John	-	3%	17%	40%	31%	9%	1%
28	SI Alexander	8%	27%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
29	DUCOURNAU Enzo	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
30	DEMIRCHIAN Edward	7%	37%	38%	16%	3%	-
31	LI Ethan	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-	-
32	KOU Logan	31%	53%	15%	2%	-	-
33	HONG Eason	2%	13%	30%	32%	18%	5%	-
34	LEE Connor	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
35	NOZAWA Luke	-	1%	8%	26%	40%	23%	2%
36	WAN William	21%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
37	WANG Alexander	12%	37%	37%	13%	2%	-	-
38	KIM Hayden	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
39	TIAN Dylan	-	4%	26%	43%	23%	4%
40	LEE Paxton	14%	39%	33%	12%	2%	-
41	YANG Rony	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
42	HAO hardy	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
43	BALDWIN Liam	19%	43%	30%	7%	1%	-	-
44	XUE Jason	9%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
45	LEE Zeo	65%	30%	5%	-	-	-
46	LEI Hanson	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.