9th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC & RJCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Friday, February 27, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Happy Stages - North Hollywood, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 DU Evan 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 75%
2 MOSLEY Wally 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 55%
3 YOO Lucas 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 54% 16%
3 LEE Lucas 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 52%
5 LI Vance 100% 100% 98% 85% 51% 13%
6 LIU Yihong 100% 100% 99% 92% 64% 23%
7 TENG Eric 100% 98% 85% 55% 22% 4% -
8 LO Stefan 100% 96% 76% 42% 14% 2% -
9 WU Nathan 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 42%
10 WONG Kyle 100% 100% 100% 97% 86% 56% 18%
11 SHIH Derek 100% 100% 97% 79% 41% 9%
12 CHU Clayton 100% 99% 92% 69% 36% 10% 1%
13 LI Connor 100% 98% 85% 50% 15% 2%
14 SUN Jerry 100% 100% 99% 94% 71% 28%
15 YOON Ian 100% 100% 93% 65% 27% 5%
16 GUO Jonathan 100% 100% 99% 93% 67% 25% 3%
17 YI Alexander 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 46% 8%
18 FU Benjamin 100% 100% 99% 89% 61% 21% 2%
19 YUN Mason 100% 100% 95% 65% 23% 3%
20 LIU Aiden 100% 100% 93% 67% 29% 5%
21 DAI Greyson 100% 52% 8% 1% - -
22 PARK Sean 100% 99% 91% 62% 24% 3%
23 ZHAO Luke 100% 99% 91% 64% 27% 5% -
24 ELARDO Griffin 100% 100% 97% 85% 56% 21% 3%
25 LIU William 100% 98% 88% 60% 26% 6% -
26 LI Stephen 100% 100% 99% 86% 49% 10%
27 LI John 100% 100% 97% 80% 40% 9% 1%
28 SI Alexander 100% 92% 65% 30% 8% 1% -
29 DUCOURNAU Enzo 100% 84% 46% 14% 2% - -
30 DEMIRCHIAN Edward 100% 93% 57% 19% 3% -
31 LI Ethan 100% 91% 60% 24% 5% - -
32 KOU Logan 100% 69% 16% 2% - -
33 HONG Eason 100% 98% 84% 55% 23% 5% -
34 LEE Connor 100% 87% 53% 20% 4% - -
35 NOZAWA Luke 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 26% 2%
36 WAN William 100% 79% 35% 7% 1% - -
37 WANG Alexander 100% 88% 51% 14% 2% - -
38 KIM Hayden 100% 100% 96% 79% 46% 15% 2%
39 TIAN Dylan 100% 100% 96% 70% 27% 4%
40 LEE Paxton 100% 86% 46% 13% 2% -
41 YANG Rony 100% 85% 50% 17% 3% - -
42 HAO hardy 100% 87% 51% 17% 3% - -
43 BALDWIN Liam 100% 81% 38% 8% 1% - -
44 XUE Jason 100% 91% 63% 28% 7% 1% -
45 LEE Zeo 100% 35% 5% - - -
46 LEI Hanson 100% 62% 18% 3% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.