The Winter's Edge Open

Unrated Mixed Épée

Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 2:30 PM

EKU Campus Rec Center - Richmond, KY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 ANDERSON Noah 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 26%
2 TERRILL Luke 100% 99% 93% 68% 29% 5%
3 ICE McKenna 100% 96% 74% 34% 7% -
3 NEUMANN Nathaniel 100% 99% 92% 64% 25% 4%
5 BATES Madison 100% 99% 86% 51% 15% 2%
6 LORCHEIM Maxwell 100% 99% 93% 64% 19% 1%
7 MUDD Dakota 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 42%
8 WILLIAMS Jacob 100% 100% 100% 99% 84% 30%
9 LAGONA Anna 100% 95% 68% 27% 3% -
10 MESSMANN Brandon 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 31%
11 DURR Anna 100% 75% 34% 8% 1% -
11 KINCAID Nathaniel 100% 99% 90% 64% 29% 6%
13 DUTTON Kimberly 100% 61% 18% 2% - -
14 WALKER Derek 100% 94% 68% 31% 7% 1%
15 GIVAN Cury 100% 96% 75% 37% 8% 1%
16 HARPER Harper 100% 76% 33% 7% 1% -
17 SMITH Ever 100% 90% 54% 16% 2% -
18 KOENIGSKNECHT Michelle 100% 93% 60% 19% 2% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.