The Tom Lucente Hangover Classic 2026

Senior Women's Épée

Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Richmond Fencing Club - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 SCHICKEL Juliana 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 62%
2 NOLAN Sophia 100% 99% 88% 59% 22% 3%
3 BERGAN Bailey 100% 99% 92% 66% 30% 6%
3 KRECK Marie 100% 100% 100% 98% 81% 17%
5 GIGLIO Liliane 100% 87% 52% 18% 3% -
6 SHIN Jamie 100% 100% 94% 74% 38% 9%
7 THOMPSON Grace 100% 76% 33% 6% - -
8 VILLAVICENCIO Fiorella 100% 100% 97% 83% 49% 13%
9 AXELROD Charlotte 100% 95% 72% 35% 8% 1%
10 JOHNSTON Ashlyn 100% 99% 91% 64% 26% 4%
11 NANAYAKKARA Sanuthi 100% 98% 85% 55% 21% 4%
12 SULLIVAN Kailee 100% 86% 51% 18% 3% -
13 JOHNSTON Jessica 100% 98% 73% 24% 2% -
14 JOHNSTON Kira 100% 84% 41% 7% 1% -
15 D'ANGELO Olivia 100% 96% 73% 30% 4% -
16 MINER Eisley 100% 100% 97% 79% 36% 6%
17 MORRIS Michelle 100% 99% 90% 61% 24% 4%
18 DROLET Julia 100% 73% 28% 5% 1% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.