The Tom Lucente Hangover Classic 2026

Div III Mixed Épée

Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 1:00 PM

Richmond Fencing Club - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	MILLSON Daniel	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%
2	STRAFFORD Andrew	1%	8%	25%	38%	25%	4%
3	RAWSON Nicholas	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%
3	PRAKASH Rahul	1%	8%	26%	39%	23%	3%
5	ZIMSKY James	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
6	PRICE Owen	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
7	KARNAVAS William	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
8	CHONG Eden	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
9	DELONG Mike	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
10	BOZARTH Alex	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
11	GRAMLICH Bradley	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
12	SHIN Jamie	13%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-
13	CAMPBELL Paul	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	19%
13	KELLEY Nathan	3%	19%	39%	29%	9%	1%
15	CHAN Ian	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
16	HUDSON Brian	15%	41%	33%	10%	1%	-
17	SIMS Martin L.	5%	25%	39%	24%	6%	-
18	SINGH Meet	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%
19	JARRATT Isaac	3%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
20	FUERTE William	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
21	HAVERSON Civa	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
22	FAYVUSOVICH Emmanual	1%	9%	33%	37%	17%	3%
23	CASTRO Ryan	8%	27%	36%	23%	6%	1%
24	WU Jiachen	2%	15%	39%	33%	10%	1%
25	CARR Wesley	3%	22%	42%	27%	7%	1%
25	STANDISH Zachary	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
27	GIGLIO Liliane	19%	47%	28%	6%	1%	-
28	SMITHSON Matthew	11%	47%	32%	8%	1%	-
29	GUARDIOLA JR Oscar	6%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%
30	MINER Eisley	19%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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