Long Island Challenge ROC & RPC

Div II Women's Épée

Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 1:30 PM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	XIAO Katelyn	-	-	1%	8%	25%	40%	26%
2	WILLIAMSON Beatrix	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
3	WANDMACHER GUERRERO Angela	-	-	2%	16%	45%	36%
3	HSU Catherine	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
5	PETRIZZO Anna	14%	40%	35%	11%	1%
6	CHEN Alicia	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
7	CHAKRAPANI Tara	1%	10%	33%	39%	16%	2%
8	LIU Lillian	2%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%
9	ORDORICA Abra	-	3%	17%	39%	33%	8%
10	CHERNOBRIVETS Maria	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
11	BUES Caelan	3%	25%	41%	25%	5%	-
12	LI Yixin Catherine	-	-	4%	23%	47%	24%
13	ZHENG Kristen	1%	9%	24%	33%	23%	8%	1%
14	VITEVITCH Sophia	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
15	ALVAREZ Martine	9%	34%	39%	16%	2%
16	HALL Henrietta	14%	37%	35%	12%	2%	-
17	DUNNE Jessica	-	2%	15%	38%	37%	8%
17	FOMINA Polina	1%	8%	30%	43%	18%
19	LU HsinAi	-	5%	18%	32%	29%	13%	2%
20	SAJJA Anwita	5%	20%	33%	28%	12%	3%	-
21	ERIKSEN Kate	2%	10%	25%	33%	22%	8%	1%
22	BROWN Lynora	14%	38%	35%	12%	1%	-
23	KHANNA Bhairavi	26%	47%	23%	4%	-	-
24	CHEN Sarah	27%	44%	24%	5%	-
25	DEITZ Surabhi	4%	26%	41%	24%	5%	-
26	CHEN Sunny	-	4%	20%	41%	29%	6%
28	ZHANG Anna	31%	45%	20%	4%	-	-
29	IVANOV Angela-Sophie	2%	12%	33%	38%	14%	2%
30	DATSON Mia	8%	26%	34%	23%	8%	1%	-
31	WESTERFELD Zoey	58%	34%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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