9th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC & RJCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Happy Stages - North Hollywood, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LOZANO Veyron Jericho	-	-	-	-	1%	15%	84%
2	PE Noah	-	-	2%	13%	41%	45%
3	LI Lucas	-	-	1%	9%	38%	53%
3	YE Linfeng	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
5	LI Daniel	-	-	-	6%	35%	59%
6	PARK Kaiden	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	16%	1%
7	DENG David	-	3%	20%	46%	28%	3%
8	HUANG Nathan	-	2%	15%	41%	35%	7%
9	ALVAREZ Francisco Janusz	-	3%	20%	47%	27%	3%
10	SLAIN Owen	-	3%	19%	40%	31%	7%
11	TIMBOL Elijah	-	-	4%	19%	41%	33%	3%
12	TSUI Raedyn Ho Hin	-	-	6%	33%	47%	13%
13	LEE Lucas	2%	20%	42%	27%	7%	1%
14	CHEUNG Henry	6%	33%	42%	17%	2%	-
15	FOY Grant	-	1%	11%	37%	41%	10%
16	YE Jerry	-	3%	17%	39%	33%	7%
17	LOPES-EASON Liam James	8%	32%	39%	17%	3%	-
18	SHADRAVAN Arash	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-
19	KWONG Colin	3%	26%	48%	21%	3%	-
19	LEE Colin	7%	35%	41%	15%	2%	-
21	GOURLEY Jack	10%	41%	35%	12%	2%	-	-
22	LE Oliver	56%	36%	8%	1%	-	-	-
23	SINGH Reyaansh	8%	43%	37%	11%	1%	-
24	ZHANG Jason	-	2%	15%	41%	34%	7%
25	SCHAMP Eliot	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-
26	KOEHLER Marc	-	7%	28%	39%	21%	4%	-
27	AGARWAL Jagrav	1%	13%	36%	35%	13%	2%	-
28	BARROW Jackson	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
29	WARD MADS	9%	47%	36%	8%	1%	-
30	NAGPAL Kai	56%	36%	7%	1%	-	-
31	FARRAR Peter	66%	30%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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