9th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC & RJCC

Cadet Women's Saber

Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM

Happy Stages - North Hollywood, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LIN Ariel	-	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
2	PEREIRA Izumi	-	-	2%	13%	39%	46%
3	KIM Alexia	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
3	CHANG Kaitlyn	-	-	6%	25%	43%	26%
5	CHENG Zijuan "Grace"	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	28%
6	CHENG Anna	-	2%	11%	31%	40%	16%
7	DENG Oscar	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
8	YU Sydney	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
9	SHI Maxine	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	18%
10	DING Jolie	-	4%	23%	50%	24%
11	BAEK Aileen	-	6%	28%	40%	22%	4%
12	STAPLEY Claire	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	8%
13	ZHANG Cecilia	9%	40%	39%	11%	1%
14	RUSMEVICHIENTONG Lyla	-	1%	12%	44%	44%
15	VILLAMATER Mia Franchesca	-	8%	31%	39%	18%	3%
16	DAVIS Layla	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-
18	WANG Makayla	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3%
19	JUNG Sienna	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	14%
20	JOHNSTON Sabrina	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
21	SONG Phoebe	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	2%
21	ZENG Stella	-	6%	27%	40%	22%	4%
23	ENNIS Charlotte	3%	19%	40%	29%	8%	1%
24	SON Ellie	3%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
25	SUTHERLAND Sadie	3%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
26	KISARA-KELLY Aiko	4%	38%	40%	16%	3%	-
27	WELCH Greta	7%	36%	42%	13%	1%
28	YUMIACO Samantha	3%	16%	35%	33%	13%	1%
29	LABAZNIKOVA Alla	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-
30	FANG Lauren	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-
31	ROPER Dova	53%	38%	9%	1%	-
31	CHEN Lydia	14%	44%	32%	9%	1%	-
33	CHAN Maggie	9%	33%	36%	18%	4%	-
34	HOWARD Sasha	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
35	LEE Alana	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
36	SHACKLEFORD Alessandra	83%	16%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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