9th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC & RJCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 4:00 PM

Happy Stages - North Hollywood, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YUEN Caleb	-	-	-	4%	17%	41%	38%
2	WANG James	-	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
3	DESAI Arthav	-	2%	9%	25%	35%	23%	6%
3	LOPEZ Mateo	-	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	31%
5	MOROAICA Seiku	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
6	FU BRANDEN	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	44%
6	WANG David	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	31%	11%
8	EKAMBARAM Rithik	-	2%	9%	24%	35%	24%	7%
9	WANG Darren	-	1%	6%	22%	38%	27%	6%
10	LI Jason	-	2%	9%	26%	36%	22%	4%
11	CHOI LIAM	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
12	FAN Yuchen	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
13	LUO Gavin	-	-	3%	14%	31%	35%	16%
14	QI Zach	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	8%
15	HSIEH Sebastian	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
16	CONCANNON Jackson	4%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%	-
17	LEI Isaac	-	4%	17%	32%	31%	13%	2%
18	YE Aaron	-	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	19%
19	JI Derek	-	4%	16%	31%	31%	15%	3%
20	WONG Alexander	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
21	DING Orlando	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
22	CAO Chuck	-	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
23	HSIEH Maxwell	-	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
24	TABANCAY Cole	-	2%	10%	25%	34%	23%	6%
25	SO Cheston	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	3%	-
26	CHEN Aaron	-	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
27	CHEN Maorui	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-	-
28	LI Edward	8%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
29	QIAO Jason	3%	16%	31%	30%	15%	4%	-
29	SUN alan	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
31	FAN Yuen	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
32	LIU Jayden	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
33	XIN Ryan	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
34	BURKHART Camden	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
35	BOOKER Gavin	7%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%	-
36	WANG Chuyun	19%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
37	CHANG Allen	11%	32%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
38	WU August	2%	12%	28%	32%	20%	6%	1%
39	CHOI Theo	21%	38%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
40	BROWN Eli	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
41	LAM Dylan	4%	21%	35%	28%	10%	2%	-
42	LEE Albert	1%	7%	22%	33%	25%	10%	1%
43	NGUYEN Tristan	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-
44	KHUU HALL Gibson	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
45	YOON Jacob	2%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%	-
46	CHEN Donovan	5%	23%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-
47	YUEN Aulden	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-
48	KIM Dylan	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.