The Tom Lucente Hangover Classic 2026

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Richmond Fencing Club - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DIMMETT David C.	-	-	-	5%	24%	45%	25%
2	SNIDER Jeffrey H.	-	-	-	< 1%	5%	29%	66%
3	OWEN Michael D.	-	-	1%	15%	49%	30%	5%
3	RACHTCHININE Alexandre	-	-	-	-	4%	31%	65%
5	ANDERSON Jr. Danny R.	2%	12%	30%	34%	17%	4%	-
5	SHANKS Aidan T.	-	-	-	5%	24%	44%	26%
7	SHELLY Emery	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	18%	2%
8	HITCHCOCK David	-	-	-	1%	7%	32%	60%
9	CARTER Austin L.	-	-	-	2%	17%	45%	36%
10	WALLACE George	-	-	-	5%	25%	46%	23%
11	DILDA Griffin	-	5%	17%	33%	31%	13%	1%
12	GLOGOWSKI Konrad	-	1%	7%	27%	41%	21%	4%
13	ISAACSON Bjorn	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%	1%
14	GUO Benjamin	10%	32%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
15	WU Jiachen	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
16	GRAMLICH Bradley	1%	13%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
17	KELLEY Nathan	-	1%	10%	37%	43%	8%	-
18	HALES Adam	3%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
19	PRICE Owen	1%	10%	27%	34%	22%	6%	-
20	BOZARTH Alex	-	4%	21%	40%	27%	7%	1%
21	BENUCCI Vincent	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	8%	-
22	SIMS Martin L.	2%	16%	38%	33%	11%	1%	-
23	KARNAVAS William	-	4%	20%	40%	28%	7%	1%
24	PRAKASH Rahul	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	2%
25	MILLNER Brian	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
26	SHIN Jamie	3%	17%	34%	31%	12%	2%	-
27	CHONG Eden	39%	43%	16%	2%	-	-	-
28	STRAFFORD Andrew	5%	27%	42%	22%	4%	-	-
29	SACKETT Gavin	21%	48%	26%	5%	-	-	-
30	CHAN Ian	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
31	WHITE Elijah	8%	43%	35%	11%	1%	-	-
32	HUDSON Brian	13%	40%	34%	11%	2%	-	-
33	CASTRO Ryan	7%	32%	40%	19%	3%	-	-
34	HO Lucas	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
34	GIGLIO Liliane	59%	33%	7%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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