Long Island Challenge ROC & RPC

Div I-A Women's Saber

Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 12:30 PM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FOSS Persephone	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
2	GHOSH Priyanka	-	-	1%	6%	34%	59%
3	CROOKS Riley	-	2%	13%	36%	40%	9%
3	BARROSO Isabela	-	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
5	KIM Audrey	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%	1%
6	YERENKOVA Ameliia	6%	27%	40%	22%	4%	-
6	NG Sophia	-	2%	15%	35%	35%	12%
8	GOODWIN Julia	17%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
9	IANNUZZI Lucy	-	-	3%	17%	42%	37%
10	XU Elaine	-	-	3%	14%	35%	36%	12%
11	HO Sophia	1%	9%	27%	37%	21%	5%	-
12	MYAT Chloe	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	22%
13	LAFFY Lily	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	5%
14	RANDALL-COLLINS Shea M.	3%	18%	34%	31%	12%	2%
15	BARNES Sarah	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%	-
16	WONG Charlene	2%	13%	31%	34%	18%	3%
17	LOO Kaitlyn	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
18	ZHENG Winona	1%	8%	26%	39%	22%	4%
19	SHI Chuqing	10%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
20	YANNOPOULOS Pompie	-	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%
21	CHEN Victoria	1%	15%	37%	33%	12%	2%
22	SMITH Genevieve	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
23	ZHANG Emily	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
24	CONVERSO-PARSONS Maia	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
25	DESAUTELS Alexandra	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
26	NIU Jessica	-	2%	14%	36%	37%	11%
27	HARRISON Allie	29%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-
28	LEIGH Adalene	2%	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%
29	TASSONE Charlie	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
30	JAJRA Avni	19%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-	-
31	LAYNE-STASIK Magdalena	79%	19%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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