9th Annual Sword in the Stone RYC & RJCC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, March 1, 2026 at 1:30 PM

Happy Stages - North Hollywood, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YE Linfeng	-	-	-	-	4%	31%	65%
2	JIN Yucheng	-	-	4%	20%	44%	32%
3	LYU Brandon	-	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
3	PARK Kaiden	-	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	16%
5	ZHOU jiatong	-	-	2%	13%	34%	39%	12%
6	YE Jerry	-	-	4%	18%	41%	36%
7	ZHANG Jason	-	-	4%	22%	44%	29%
8	AGARWAL Jagrav	-	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%	-
9	TIMBOL Elijah	-	-	-	5%	21%	43%	30%
10	HUANG Nathan	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
11	TSUI Raedyn Ho Hin	-	-	1%	7%	29%	51%	13%
12	LEE Colin	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	3%
13	CHEN Solomon	2%	14%	34%	35%	14%	2%
14	TRAN Andrew	-	4%	19%	37%	29%	10%	1%
15	CHENG Alvin	-	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	-
16	BHANGOO Arman	12%	40%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
17	KWONG Colin	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
18	KUK Francis	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	15%
19	SHA Lambor	-	1%	9%	31%	42%	16%
20	WARD MADS	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%
21	TURBAT Travis	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
22	CABATO Luca	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-	-
23	LIN Sampson	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
24	GU Evan	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
25	FOO Kingston	1%	10%	27%	36%	22%	4%
26	LOPES-EASON Liam James	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%	-
27	HUANG Owen	-	6%	25%	37%	24%	6%	-
28	LEE Juneau	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	3%
29	CHOI William	2%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
30	TAN benjamin	8%	29%	36%	21%	5%	-
31	WANG Eason	-	2%	13%	33%	35%	14%	2%
32	HUANG Barron	< 1%	4%	21%	44%	26%	4%
33	NGO Lincoln	15%	45%	31%	8%	1%	-
34	FALCONE Mateo	2%	15%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-
35	LE Oliver	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%
36	KIM Ryan	3%	21%	38%	29%	9%	1%
37	NAGPAL Kai	34%	45%	18%	3%	-	-
38	GOURLEY Jack	2%	18%	41%	29%	8%	1%
39	SEUL Maddox	14%	38%	35%	12%	1%	-	-
40	WANG Andy	17%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-
41	BARROW Jackson	15%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
42	LIU Kingston	46%	41%	11%	1%	-	-
43	ZHANG Charlie	4%	29%	40%	22%	5%	1%	-
44	MITCHELL Kallum	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%	-
45	KONO Kyle	3%	17%	34%	32%	13%	2%
46	SCHAMP Eliot	46%	40%	12%	2%	-	-	-
47	SCHWARTZ Walker	12%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-
48	SURIANO Dominic	26%	49%	21%	4%	-	-
49	KIM Noah	67%	28%	4%	-	-	-	-
50	ZUO Thomas	52%	37%	10%	1%	-	-
51	CAO LANDON	1%	16%	38%	33%	11%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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