GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Cadet Men's Foil

Saturday, March 14, 2026 at 8:00 AM

MSA Sports Spot - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LU Alex	-	-	-	-	3%	24%	72%
2	LIN Jun Hui	-	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
3	LATORRE Leonardo	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
3	EDWARDS Connor	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
5	FANG Haoyu	-	-	-	-	3%	27%	69%
6	COOK Grant	-	2%	15%	37%	36%	10%
7	ZHAO Jason	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
8	WENGER Liam	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	14%	1%
10	WANG Kevin	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	18%	2%
11	PAYNE Lynas	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	19%	2%
12	ZMUDA Aiden	-	-	1%	10%	36%	44%	9%
13	WENGER Rowan	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%	1%
14	LI Andy	-	1%	7%	36%	56%
15	RITTER Nathan D.	7%	41%	39%	12%	1%
16	MCCONKEY Tristan	1%	6%	24%	40%	25%	5%
17	LINEBERRY CADEN	-	-	2%	14%	39%	38%	7%
18	MORGAN Jacob	5%	24%	40%	25%	6%	1%	-
19	TAGORE Ayansh	3%	25%	46%	23%	3%
20	MORALES Tycho	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	-
21	CRONK Trevor	9%	34%	38%	16%	3%	-
22	DEPP Edward	-	4%	20%	41%	29%	6%	-
23	XU Rambert	2%	14%	31%	32%	16%	4%	-
24	GOGOI Kavi	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
25	STAMPS Jasper	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
25	WANG Freyr	-	2%	10%	27%	36%	22%	5%
27	DENG Albert	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-	-
28	VOGEL Rylan	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-	-
29	CHAN William	10%	31%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
30	KOLACKI Gabriel	10%	33%	37%	16%	3%	-
31	MEI Edan	11%	37%	37%	13%	2%	-	-
32	GU Jonathan	1%	9%	29%	39%	20%	4%	-
33	THEKKEL Jonathan	8%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
34	MCGRATH Milo	1%	9%	36%	44%	11%
35	BEDARD Bennett	51%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-
36	CHASE Crosby	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
37	MARVEL Elliot	33%	44%	20%	3%	-	-	-
38	CORDERO Lucas	64%	31%	5%	-	-
40	MATIYASH Andrew	11%	37%	36%	13%	2%	-	-
41	SPAULDING Oliver	1%	32%	43%	20%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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