GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Junior Women's Foil

Saturday, March 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM

MSA Sports Spot - Grand Rapids, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SENIC Adeline	-	-	-	-	-	-	100%
2	CHOI JULIE	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
3	HOOGSTRA Lucy	1%	11%	35%	37%	15%	2%
3	HUANG Natalie	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
5	TAN Dorathy	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	24%
6	HOROWITZ Shuli	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
7	BOIKE Lucille	-	-	3%	17%	36%	34%	9%
8	WEN Cynthia	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	4%	-
9	HARRIS Parker	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	22%
10	AADHI Hansika	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
11	CULLIVAN Sienna	-	1%	5%	23%	44%	27%
12	YU Angela	10%	44%	35%	10%	1%	-
13	ZHANG Priscilla	-	3%	20%	39%	30%	8%	-
14	COLLINS Anna	-	5%	26%	43%	23%	3%
15	MORSE Katherine	-	1%	11%	33%	39%	16%	-
16	LIN Kenzie	-	5%	26%	41%	23%	4%
17	SWOPE Farren	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	18%	3%
18	NAFSOU Ava	-	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%	-
19	SAMALA Reese	1%	15%	41%	33%	9%	1%
20	SONG Jenna	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
21	BLAKEY Heaven	-	1%	12%	34%	38%	15%	-
22	SUN Nicole	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
23	MATTUPALLI Ashwika	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
24	XIONG Isabel	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
25	ADLER Zoe	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%
26	WOERTER Therese-Margaret	12%	46%	32%	9%	1%	-
27	LICHTENSTEIGER Megan	1%	10%	30%	36%	18%	4%	-
28	TAYLOR-OSBORN Nadia	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
29	NEPAL Asha	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
30	LIN Aria	65%	30%	4%	-	-	-
31	REDEMANN Reagan	28%	44%	23%	5%	1%	-	-
32	KANG Marian	< 1%	1%	12%	36%	39%	11%
33	PARANJAPE Ojasvi	13%	40%	33%	11%	2%	-
34	LEVY Gabrielle	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-
35	CHANDLER Annika	20%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
36	VINS Katherine	15%	51%	28%	6%	1%	-	-
37	ARSOVSKI Maya	59%	34%	6%	-	-	-
38	CHANDLER Camille	63%	32%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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