2nd On Point Spring Open

Mixed Foil

Saturday, March 14, 2026 at 9:00 AM

CSD YMCA CHARLOTTE - Clover, SC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	EMENHEISER Conrad	-	-	1%	13%	44%	41%
2	ROSE Ben	-	-	-	2%	19%	49%	30%
3	HUTH Jacob	-	-	-	1%	11%	43%	46%
3	REYES Manuel A	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
5	SICHITIU Alexander	-	-	-	1%	16%	83%
6	LIMA Gabriel	-	-	-	3%	20%	46%	31%
7	SMOLICH Marat	-	-	1%	13%	42%	43%
8	LAUSI Patrick	-	-	1%	10%	49%	36%	4%
9	VIVEROS Antonio	-	1%	20%	44%	29%	6%
10	MAXWELL CJ	-	2%	20%	56%	20%	2%
11	VIVEROS Evan	-	-	5%	27%	55%	13%
12	WEI Darius	-	-	4%	19%	37%	30%	9%
13	GRISWOLD Abel B.	-	-	1%	17%	58%	24%
14	PRUT Anton	-	5%	27%	43%	22%	3%
15	SHEHORN Connor	-	1%	14%	39%	37%	9%
16	RILEY Owen	1%	11%	36%	39%	12%	1%	-
17	BRUCE Roman	-	-	3%	32%	45%	18%	2%
18	GADOW Patrick	5%	25%	41%	25%	5%	-
19	MONSCH Channing	-	3%	33%	43%	19%	3%
20	RAMESH prashvin	5%	27%	43%	21%	3%	-
21	LEWIS Jared	-	-	5%	28%	48%	20%
22	HAN Nathan	10%	34%	38%	16%	2%	-
23	MONAGHAN Micah	2%	20%	40%	30%	8%	1%
24	MANN Justin	38%	45%	15%	1%	-	-
25	MADDOX Lacey	-	-	8%	38%	45%	9%
26	MORENO Peter	14%	55%	26%	5%	-	-
27	HAILU Raena	5%	29%	39%	21%	5%	-
28	APANPA simeon	-	3%	15%	40%	40%	2%
29	MAXWELL Austin	-	10%	50%	35%	4%	-	-
30	ARAES Francisco	-	4%	21%	39%	28%	7%	1%
31	LEE Isabella	16%	42%	33%	9%	1%	-
32	BAZZLE Christopher E.	4%	26%	45%	22%	3%	-	-
33	DAVIS Mitchell	-	6%	32%	41%	18%	2%
34	SATTERLY Avery	11%	32%	34%	18%	4%	-	-
35	MCMAHEL Randy	27%	53%	18%	2%	-	-	-
36	CARDINAL Elise	23%	67%	10%	-	-	-
37	WIAND Eleanora (Ellie)	10%	40%	43%	7%	-	-
38	MCBRIDE Cynthia	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-	-
38	SNYDER Andrew	22%	63%	14%	1%	-	-	-
40	MARRELLI Carolina	54%	39%	7%	-	-	-
40	ARNOTT Lucas	28%	43%	24%	5%	-	-
42	UPCHURCH Caleb	< 1%	4%	20%	40%	31%	5%
43	CHIKHLIKER Mary Ellis	72%	28%	1%	-	-	-
44	JOHNSON Ethan	69%	28%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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