2nd On Point Spring Open

Div III Mixed Foil

Saturday, March 14, 2026 at 1:00 PM

CSD YMCA CHARLOTTE - Clover, SC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KAPLAN Abe	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	9%
2	VIVEROS Antonio	-	-	8%	44%	48%
3	SHEHORN Connor	-	-	1%	12%	60%	28%
3	SMOLICH Emily	5%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%
5	MAXWELL CJ	-	-	1%	6%	32%	61%
6	DAVIS Mitchell	-	-	4%	23%	44%	29%
7	APANPA simeon	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
8	TARAJANO Jose	20%	40%	29%	10%	1%	-
9	RAMESH prashvin	-	-	5%	35%	45%	15%
10	MONAGHAN Micah	1%	8%	30%	41%	19%	1%
11	GADOW Patrick	-	11%	39%	38%	11%	-
12	RILEY Owen	-	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
13	BAZZLE Christopher E.	2%	13%	32%	36%	16%	2%
14	ARAES Francisco	-	1%	10%	37%	40%	12%
15	MAXWELL Austin	-	-	4%	20%	44%	32%
16	MORENO Peter	1%	12%	38%	35%	13%	2%
17	IBRAHIM Yara	1%	13%	48%	32%	6%	-
18	LEE Isabella	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
19	MONSCH Channing	-	1%	14%	54%	31%
20	MONES Robert	-	5%	25%	49%	20%	2%
21	MORGAN NinA	-	-	2%	16%	45%	37%
22	MCMAHEL Randy	5%	41%	45%	8%	-
23	SNYDER Andrew	7%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-
24	CARDINAL Elise	18%	49%	28%	4%	-	-
25	TERRY Elijah	-	2%	10%	28%	39%	21%
26	WANG Thea	1%	9%	36%	37%	15%	2%
27	SOJA Caroline	31%	49%	18%	3%	-	-
28	SATTERLY Avery	4%	23%	38%	27%	7%	1%
29	WIAND Eleanora (Ellie)	6%	31%	46%	16%	2%	-
30	KUHNLE Hendrik	1%	9%	31%	39%	19%	2%
31	DOWNER Briannah	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
32	SLADE Luke pete	21%	47%	29%	3%	-
33	FARNUM Benjamin	-	1%	12%	34%	38%	15%
34	CHIKHLIKER Mary Ellis	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
35	MCBRIDE Cynthia	41%	47%	12%	1%	-
36	FARNUM Lucy	9%	34%	37%	17%	3%	-
37	NUNN Declan	37%	50%	12%	1%	-	-
38	MARRELLI Carolina	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
39	UPCHURCH Caleb	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%	-
40	JOHNSON Ethan	28%	45%	22%	5%	-	-
41	SHAW Madilyn	1%	12%	35%	37%	13%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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