Fortune RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Saturday, March 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM

Ontario Convention Center - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Cindy	-	-	1%	8%	34%	57%
2	CHENG Zijuan "Grace"	-	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
3	SHI Maxine	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
3	SUTHERLAND Sadie	-	-	2%	19%	51%	28%
5	ZHAO Audrey	1%	6%	26%	41%	22%	4%
6	WANG Makayla	-	-	4%	21%	47%	28%
7	FAN Tina	1%	9%	30%	41%	20%
8	ASHIKHMINA Agniya	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
9	CORD Sophia	-	-	-	2%	20%	78%
10	TAN Angela	2%	16%	37%	34%	11%
11	BAEK Aileen	-	-	3%	17%	47%	33%
12	GUO YUKI	-	-	2%	14%	36%	39%	9%
13	LUC Christabel	-	-	1%	11%	45%	43%
14	HAN yujie	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-
15	GUERVILLE Angelique	-	3%	16%	37%	35%	9%
16	CHU Lauren	10%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
17	LEE Chaewon	-	1%	6%	27%	45%	21%
18	CUI Andrea	-	2%	14%	38%	40%	5%
19	CERVERA Zoe	-	5%	20%	37%	29%	8%	1%
20	KIM Hyunji	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
21	YANG Callie	1%	11%	35%	40%	12%	1%
22	WANG Jennifer	7%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-
23	WU Melody	38%	42%	17%	3%	-
24	KIM Addison	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%
25	RO Manhattan	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%	-
26	QIU Isla Qiu	3%	20%	44%	28%	5%	-
27	LIU Kaylee	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-
28	LEONG Andrea	5%	25%	39%	25%	6%
29	CHEN Emma	9%	31%	38%	19%	3%	-
30	FISCHER Luna	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
31	CHAN Clara Minna	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%
32	ZHOU Charlotte	4%	23%	40%	27%	6%
33	ZHOU kelsey	4%	22%	39%	28%	7%	-
34	SEELMAN Alexa	26%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
35	CHANG Jillian	4%	23%	40%	27%	6%	-
36	LI Diya	24%	47%	24%	5%	-	-
37	YANG annie	7%	30%	40%	19%	3%	-
39	CAO Kaylin	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%	-
40	LOMOTAN Audrey	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
41	ZHONG Victoria	27%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
42	LAVELLE Ariel	4%	24%	39%	26%	6%	-
44	FANG Kaitlyn	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%	-
45	PAN Vivienne	2%	15%	33%	34%	15%	2%
46	GOSAVI Amiya	18%	42%	31%	8%	1%	-
46	LEE Ella	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
48	HONG Emory	33%	46%	18%	3%	-	-
49	REICH Emily	34%	43%	19%	3%	-	-
50	WANG YUHAN	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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