Cherry Blossom 2026 - D1A/VET

Div I-A Women's Saber

Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 2:00 PM

University of Maryland Reckord Armory - College Park, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	MILLER Sky	-	-	-	-	8%	92%
2	CHANG Norah	-	2%	13%	35%	38%	12%
3	STAPLETON Lindsay K.	-	-	2%	15%	41%	42%
3	GUO Daisy	2%	34%	45%	16%	2%	-
5	DAVIDOVA Kira	-	5%	20%	38%	30%	7%
6	HUA Catherine W.	-	1%	10%	42%	45%	2%
7	MCAFEE Jada	1%	13%	41%	36%	9%	-
8	COLTER Aurora	-	1%	9%	36%	46%	8%
9	MAJEWSKA Maria	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	1%
10	DRAGON Rainer	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
11	SEVASTOPULO Sahra	-	10%	49%	34%	6%	-
12	HUANG Neila	5%	22%	38%	27%	7%	1%
13	LEE Alyson	1%	8%	27%	39%	22%	4%
14	WANG Erica	3%	28%	45%	21%	3%	-
15	NGUYEN Anna	26%	42%	25%	6%	1%	-
16	ELLIS-FURLONG Ava	3%	19%	39%	29%	9%	1%
17	BARROSO Isabela	-	6%	30%	45%	17%	2%
18	SIERRA Kate	-	-	4%	24%	50%	21%
19	SULLIVAN Anna	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
20	CAO Sophie	1%	9%	35%	41%	14%	1%
21	MORIYASU Yuna	16%	40%	32%	11%	2%	-
22	KYNETT Kathryn G.	-	-	1%	9%	42%	49%
23	MCSWEENEY Kylie	-	2%	22%	51%	24%	-
24	BENT Sarah	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
25	PHILLIPPY Hannah	17%	49%	28%	6%	-	-
26	SHOWKIER Amal	76%	23%	1%	-	-	-
27	JEON Kristen	82%	17%	1%	-	-	-
28	WILFRET Katerina	54%	38%	7%	-	-	-
29	LEE-MOMBERG Diane	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
30	VANNIER Anouk	14%	64%	20%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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