Fortune RYC/RJCC

Y-10 Women's Saber

Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Ontario Convention Center - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LUC Christabel	-	-	1%	6%	22%	42%	29%
2	ZHOU Charlotte	-	1%	7%	25%	40%	26%	1%
3	CHAN Clara Minna	-	-	4%	21%	45%	30%
3	KIM Addison	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	16%
5	CERVERA Zoe	-	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
6	LIU Kaylee	-	4%	16%	34%	33%	12%
7	JIANG Harper	-	2%	16%	37%	34%	11%	-
8	QIU Isla Qiu	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%	-
9	LEE Ella	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
10	PAN Vivienne	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
11	GOSAVI Amiya	18%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
12	CHEN Chelsea	-	3%	13%	30%	34%	17%	3%
13	CHANG Jillian	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
14	YANG Callie	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%	-
15	KIM Serena	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	10%	1%
16	GEORGE McKenzie	9%	29%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
17	CAO Kaylin	-	7%	30%	39%	20%	4%	-
18	FANG Kaitlyn	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
19	XU Chenxi	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	1%
19	ZHAO Youyang	-	-	-	2%	14%	43%	41%
21	CHEN Emma	4%	21%	38%	29%	8%	1%
22	KIM Abigale	1%	9%	27%	35%	22%	5%
23	CORD Serena	11%	31%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
24	NIP Sienna	18%	38%	30%	12%	2%	-	-
25	LIN Allison	-	-	< 1%	5%	24%	44%	26%
25	REICH Emily	14%	45%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
27	ZHANG Madeline	20%	44%	29%	6%	-	-
28	HAN Rachel	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
29	WON Sophia	-	< 1%	3%	17%	36%	33%	10%
30	DJUNAEDI Chloe	58%	36%	6%	-	-	-	-
31	LEE Sofia	< 1%	10%	35%	39%	15%	1%
32	TAO Isabelle	< 1%	10%	31%	37%	19%	3%
33	HONG Loren	1%	7%	21%	32%	27%	11%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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