Challenge by the Bay RYC/RCC/Y8

Y-14 Women's Épée

Friday, April 3, 2026 at 3:30 PM

Power Sports Academy - Martinez, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Anna	-	-	-	1%	12%	42%	45%
2	RASHID Summer	-	-	-	4%	21%	49%	25%
3	ZHAO Ellie	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	18%
3	LEONG Andrea	-	1%	5%	21%	40%	28%	6%
5	BI Zoey Missing ID
6	CHO Jacey	-	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
7	LEE Adelynn	-	-	1%	8%	34%	44%	14%
8	DYMAR Anna	-	-	3%	19%	44%	33%
9	LI Allison	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
10	BURKS Madison	-	-	-	1%	11%	44%	43%
11	ARULKUMAR Lashia	-	-	-	3%	17%	44%	36%
12	BUDMAN Ava	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	15%
13	DENEALE Lucia	-	-	1%	10%	31%	41%	16%
14	BOWDEN Lily	-	5%	22%	41%	27%	5%
15	GRAZIANO Ruby Mae	-	-	2%	14%	42%	34%	7%
16	ZHAO Emma	-	1%	5%	20%	39%	29%	7%
17	YANG Emma	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
18	KIM Vivian	-	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	13%
19	REN Ivanka	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
20	LEE Lizzie Missing ID
21	LEE Rebecca	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
22	CHEN Julia Z.	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
23	REDDY Annika	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
24	ZHU Anna	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%	-
25	SANTIAGO Mara	14%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
26	GARCIA Sophia Noelle	-	-	2%	12%	36%	39%	11%
27	HUANG Sophie	1%	11%	29%	36%	19%	3%	-
28	DEFENSOR Ella	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%	2%
29	RAPTIS Layla	4%	24%	41%	25%	6%	-
30	STERNAD Pia	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
31	LI Elaine	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-
32	SINGLETARY Iona	6%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-
33	LI Zoey	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%	-
34	BACK Ella	2%	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
35	VISHWA Nishta	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%	-
36	MARTYNOVA Veronica	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
37	WARBURTON Eleanor	5%	28%	42%	21%	4%	-	-
38	TRUONG Chloe	12%	39%	35%	12%	2%	-
39	FITCH Anna	7%	33%	41%	17%	2%	-	-
40	KAYMAN June	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
41	PARK Rachel	11%	33%	36%	16%	3%	-	-
42	MUKKU Emily	1%	12%	36%	38%	11%	1%	-
43	SMIRNOVA Evangelina	8%	33%	38%	18%	4%	-	-
44	LUO Xinyue	13%	35%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
45	TAN Elliana	7%	28%	38%	22%	4%	-	-
46	STEPHAN Antje Elisa	13%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
47	GRAZIANO Josephine	7%	26%	37%	24%	6%	1%
48	FIEDOR Savannah	48%	39%	11%	1%	-	-	-
49	CHANG Mikayla	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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