Neil Lazar RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 2:00 PM

Floyd Little Athletic Center - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
2	MURPHY Genevieve	-	-	-	1%	8%	40%	51%
3	BYK Karalina	-	-	-	6%	39%	54%
3	ELLISON Ingrid	-	-	3%	17%	41%	39%
5	ZHENG Annalyn	-	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
6	ZHU Audrey	-	-	2%	12%	36%	41%	9%
7	ENRIQUEZ Bianca Perla	-	-	2%	20%	54%	24%
8	XING Melly	-	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
9	ZHU Alivia	-	-	-	1%	14%	44%	41%
10	HAFEZ Sahar	-	-	1%	7%	31%	45%	17%
11	WANG Joann	-	-	-	5%	29%	48%	17%
13	CHAN Jolene	-	-	-	7%	40%	53%
14	KIM Lael	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	15%	1%
15	KOESTERS Cecilie	-	1%	6%	22%	39%	27%	6%
16	GE Deanna	-	-	4%	23%	52%	21%
17	MILLER Anna	-	1%	5%	21%	39%	28%	6%
18	SMART Athena	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
19	RUPERTI Aria	25%	43%	25%	6%	< 1%	-	-
20	LAVOIE Cecilia	-	-	4%	20%	43%	28%	5%
21	CHANG Paige Yijae	1%	19%	43%	30%	6%	-
22	JU Victoria	-	-	4%	22%	46%	24%	3%
23	KUKLINA Maria	2%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%	-
24	CLOUD Chrystie	3%	21%	47%	26%	4%	-
25	ZHU Alicia	12%	35%	36%	14%	2%	-	-
26	XU Elaina	21%	40%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
27	ZELDIN Nina	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
28	TANG Clementine	10%	34%	38%	16%	2%	-	-
29	LIU Zihe	2%	13%	34%	36%	13%	2%	-
30	JIN Emily	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%	-
31	LU Sophia	1%	15%	41%	35%	8%	-
32	SUI Jessie	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
33	CHUNG Sera	4%	34%	43%	17%	2%	-
34	ZHU Joanna	1%	8%	33%	44%	13%	1%
35	JOVANOVIC Una	16%	39%	33%	11%	1%	-	-
36	MA Cloris	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-
37	WANG Sally	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
38	JAIN Adab	26%	46%	23%	5%	-	-	-
39	HALL Olivia	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
40	ZHENG Rachel	7%	26%	36%	23%	6%	1%
41	WANG Kelly	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-	-
42	PETERSEN Liv	25%	50%	22%	3%	-	-
43	GOMEZ Amelia	1%	10%	31%	38%	17%	3%	-
44	YANG STELLA	38%	45%	15%	2%	-	-
45	CHIANG Ellie	26%	44%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
46	CLOUD Cailynn	16%	39%	33%	11%	1%	-	-
47	WANG Jacy	75%	22%	2%	-	-	-
48	GIGUERE Ari	2%	16%	38%	34%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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