Neil Lazar RYC/RJCC

Cadet Men's Saber

Sunday, April 5, 2026 at 4:00 PM

Floyd Little Athletic Center - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIN Alex	-	5%	18%	32%	29%	13%	2%
2	WONG Mac	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
3	ONG Dylan	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
3	WONG Reagan	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
5	ORIE Sohan	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%
6	LEVIN Jacob	-	5%	18%	32%	29%	13%	2%
7	WANG Edward	-	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
8	WANG Theodore	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
9	LIU Eric	-	1%	7%	21%	35%	28%	9%
10	SONG Aidan	-	-	1%	8%	29%	41%	21%
11	ZWAKA Jonas	-	-	2%	9%	26%	40%	23%
12	STOLCKE Julian	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	5%
13	SUH Leo	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	10%
14	LEE Damian	2%	11%	28%	33%	20%	6%	1%
15	TASIKAS Pete	-	-	3%	14%	35%	36%	12%
16	CHAVAN Aditya	3%	17%	35%	30%	12%	2%	-
17	TAYCHER Aaron	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
18	BEAL Colton	-	1%	6%	21%	37%	28%	7%
19	MEDVINSKY Daniel	-	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	13%
20	CORDERO Adam	11%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
21	LI Lucas	5%	22%	35%	26%	10%	2%	-
22	WU Vincent	-	5%	20%	38%	28%	9%	1%
23	AWAD Omar	11%	32%	34%	17%	5%	1%	-
24	LIU Ryan	-	2%	9%	25%	34%	23%	6%
25	MIAO Heqi	-	2%	10%	25%	34%	23%	6%
26	CONG Mason	1%	9%	26%	33%	22%	7%	1%
27	GAO Francis	41%	41%	15%	3%	-	-
28	CHEN Felix	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
29	NAYAGAM Nishant	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
30	HU Andrew	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	20%	5%
31	FAUSTO Aidan	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
32	GUPTA Arav	6%	28%	38%	22%	6%	1%
33	LIANG Morgan	-	2%	10%	26%	34%	22%	5%
34	CHIANG Ethan	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	1%	-
35	TANJGA Luka	7%	29%	39%	20%	4%	-	-
36	LIEBOWITZ Carson	-	3%	13%	29%	32%	18%	4%
37	MAGITSKY Isaac	3%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%	-
38	MARSHQUIST Miles	22%	40%	27%	9%	2%	-	-
39	HONG Isaac	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
40	KHAN AR Missing ID
40	SINGH Sumair	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%
42	BRADIC Andreja	8%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
42	HOUPT Lucas	2%	10%	27%	33%	21%	6%	1%
44	VINCENT Yijia	16%	40%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
45	LI Kent	26%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
46	CHIN Adrian	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-	-
47	LEIGH Brayden	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
48	CHEN Leo	1%	10%	26%	33%	22%	7%	1%
49	CONNOLLY Edward Bud	23%	39%	27%	9%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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