7th Annual Precision Invitational RYC and RJCC

Y-14 Men's Saber

Friday, April 10, 2026 at 9:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEE Nathan Uju	-	-	-	3%	26%	70%
2	ZEYU wu	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	65%
3	LIN Ethan	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
3	LO Elroy	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	9%
5	FISCHER Noel	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
6	CHEN Zhengming	-	-	4%	16%	33%	34%	14%
7	YUEN Caleb	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	15%
8	LEE Bill King	1%	18%	42%	31%	8%	-
9	KIM Suin	-	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
10	CHEUNG Evan	2%	15%	33%	31%	15%	3%	-
11	GUO Jonathan	1%	6%	20%	32%	28%	12%	2%
12	DESAI Arthav	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
13	LIU Paul	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
14	TONG Evan	1%	12%	37%	37%	12%	1%
15	CHEN Aaron	-	5%	18%	33%	30%	12%	1%
16	RAZAI Evan	-	1%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
17	KIM Enoch	-	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
18	AN Chris	-	-	2%	10%	28%	38%	21%
19	LI Sky	10%	29%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
20	SLOAN Ethan	-	2%	14%	39%	39%	6%
21	WU Allen	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-
22	FAN Yuchen	5%	21%	33%	27%	12%	2%	-
23	LIU Clarence	1%	9%	25%	35%	23%	7%	-
24	SMITH Etienne	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
25	PI Edwin	-	5%	17%	31%	30%	15%	3%
26	KIM Derek	1%	9%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
27	HUNG Jaden	2%	28%	43%	23%	4%	-
28	HIROTA Jackson	23%	39%	27%	9%	2%	-	-
29	PARK Jayden	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
30	HAN Kyle	1%	7%	22%	34%	27%	9%	1%
31	DENG Richard	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
32	JI Derek	9%	31%	36%	19%	5%	1%	-
33	WANG James	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	5%
34	CHOI LIAM	-	5%	17%	31%	30%	15%	3%
36	LOVELL Jackson	21%	45%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
37	XIN Ryan	37%	44%	16%	2%	-	-	-
38	RAMOS Pious	27%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-
39	FAN Yuen	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
40	LI Jason	6%	22%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
41	NGUYEN Tristan	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.