7th Annual Precision Invitational RYC and RJCC

Y-12 Women's Épée

Saturday, April 11, 2026 at 8:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIAO irene	-	-	-	-	6%	32%	62%
2	ARNOLD Evangeline	-	-	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
3	DEJOY Leilah	-	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	6%
3	LU Chu	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
5	SUN Joanna	-	-	2%	9%	27%	39%	23%
6	CHONG Emma	-	2%	12%	34%	36%	14%	1%
7	WANG Phoebe	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
8	CHEN Charlene	12%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
9	LYNTON Olivia	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
10	SHIH Eva	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	8%	1%
11	LYNTON Alexandra	-	-	4%	19%	40%	30%	7%
12	YANG Nina	-	-	3%	15%	37%	35%	10%
13	LICON Katherine	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%
14	HUANG Sophie	1%	7%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
15	DEFENSOR Ella	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
16	LEE Zerah	19%	39%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
17	WANG Kercedes Ye	-	-	3%	17%	39%	35%	6%
18	HSIEH Sophie	3%	17%	37%	30%	11%	2%	-
19	WANG Olivia	1%	9%	29%	38%	19%	4%	-
20	FIMBRES MONYK	-	2%	14%	36%	34%	12%	1%
21	KEDAN Carmella	16%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-	-
22	WANG Elizabeth	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
23	SCHWARTZMAN Avital	6%	27%	39%	22%	5%	-	-
24	HONG Ellie	24%	43%	26%	6%	1%	-	-
25	SHIH Cayla	19%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-	-
26	BAI lufei	37%	44%	17%	3%	-	-	-
27	HWANG Faith	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-	-
28	MANDAP Natalya	17%	38%	30%	12%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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