Mission Snowed Out Showdown and Icebreaker Challenge

Y-12 Women's Saber

Sunday, April 12, 2026 at 11:45 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 KARAVAS Lucy - 1% 8% 25% 41% 25%
2 LAMTAN Trinity - - 5% 22% 43% 29%
3 ONG Katherine - 3% 15% 35% 35% 11%
3 MADDISON Estelle - 1% 5% 17% 33% 32% 12%
5 BREWSTER Ayaki - - 1% 8% 27% 41% 23%
6 SARBU Esme 1% 11% 30% 35% 19% 3%
7 OTAZU Clara 1% 9% 25% 34% 23% 8% 1%
8 VETRANO Lucia 3% 16% 36% 32% 12% 1%
9 KIM Chloe 2% 11% 28% 33% 20% 6% 1%
10 TSUI Amelia - 1% 7% 24% 37% 26% 6%
11 BHARDWAJ Sara 8% 28% 37% 21% 6% 1%
12 EL-NAZER Salwa 24% 43% 26% 7% 1% -
13 STERNBERG Ayleena - 3% 15% 31% 32% 16% 3%
14 BEAL Cameron - 1% 9% 28% 36% 21% 4%
15 KOTCHEN Audrey 1% 8% 25% 36% 24% 5%
16 LEE Claribel 11% 31% 34% 18% 5% 1% -
17 POJOGA Sophia - 2% 12% 31% 35% 18% 3%
18 PRAKASH Lithika - 1% 6% 20% 34% 29% 10%
19 MADDISON Emily 19% 41% 29% 9% 1% - -
20 CHANG Grace 2% 14% 33% 33% 15% 2%
21 BORROK Katherine 22% 43% 27% 7% 1% -
22 HAN Abigail 18% 39% 30% 11% 2% - -
23 LIU Vivienne 21% 41% 28% 9% 1% - -
24 UY Zoe 3% 18% 36% 30% 12% 2% -
25 LIN Claire 26% 41% 25% 7% 1% -
26 RUBANOVA Aleksandra 1% 7% 26% 39% 23% 4%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.