Mission Snowed Out Showdown and Icebreaker Challenge

Y-12 Women's Saber

Sunday, April 12, 2026 at 11:45 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 KARAVAS Lucy 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 25%
2 LAMTAN Trinity 100% 100% 99% 94% 72% 29%
3 ONG Katherine 100% 100% 97% 82% 47% 11%
3 MADDISON Estelle 100% 100% 99% 95% 78% 45% 12%
5 BREWSTER Ayaki 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 23%
6 SARBU Esme 100% 99% 87% 57% 22% 3%
7 OTAZU Clara 100% 99% 90% 65% 32% 9% 1%
8 VETRANO Lucia 100% 97% 81% 45% 13% 1%
9 KIM Chloe 100% 98% 87% 60% 27% 7% 1%
10 TSUI Amelia 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 32% 6%
11 BHARDWAJ Sara 100% 92% 64% 28% 6% 1%
12 EL-NAZER Salwa 100% 76% 33% 7% 1% -
13 STERNBERG Ayleena 100% 100% 96% 81% 50% 18% 3%
14 BEAL Cameron 100% 100% 99% 89% 61% 25% 4%
15 KOTCHEN Audrey 100% 99% 91% 66% 29% 5%
16 LEE Claribel 100% 89% 58% 25% 6% 1% -
17 POJOGA Sophia 100% 100% 98% 86% 56% 21% 3%
18 PRAKASH Lithika 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 10%
19 MADDISON Emily 100% 81% 40% 11% 2% - -
20 CHANG Grace 100% 98% 83% 50% 17% 2%
21 BORROK Katherine 100% 78% 35% 8% 1% -
22 HAN Abigail 100% 82% 43% 13% 2% - -
23 LIU Vivienne 100% 79% 38% 10% 1% - -
24 UY Zoe 100% 97% 80% 44% 14% 2% -
25 LIN Claire 100% 74% 33% 8% 1% -
26 RUBANOVA Aleksandra 100% 99% 93% 66% 27% 4%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.