2026 TCFC April Challenges

Senior Mixed Foil

Sunday, April 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM

Twin Cities Fencing Club - St. Paul, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 WILKINS Mateo - - - - 7% 93%
2 ZINSER James - - - 5% 32% 63%
3 FOSTERVOLD Castiel - - 4% 19% 43% 34%
3 STELLPFLUG Zachary - 1% 10% 37% 49% 2%
5 IBARRA Alejandro - 4% 19% 39% 31% 6%
6 PERLENFEIN Tyler J. - 1% 5% 23% 43% 29%
7 KIM Ethen 1% 10% 29% 37% 19% 3%
8 LEGGETT Emilia 2% 15% 39% 33% 11% 1%
9 HOOVER Timothy - 3% 15% 36% 35% 11%
9 SUNDSBAK Evan 4% 21% 37% 28% 9% 1%
11 REIFF Mathilda 2% 17% 40% 32% 9% -
12 LAMAR Louis 6% 28% 42% 22% 3% -
13 ROY Griffin - 6% 36% 48% 10% -
14 TUEL Jude - 4% 18% 36% 32% 10%
15 MURDOCK Owen 1% 10% 32% 38% 17% 2%
16 NEPAL Noukou Asha 15% 43% 33% 9% 1% -
17 DAVIS Jace W. 12% 35% 35% 15% 3% -
18 WINTERS Linus 52% 38% 10% 1% - -
19 JORGENSEN Kjirsten 10% 42% 36% 11% 1% -
20 KOTCH Brodie 21% 41% 28% 9% 1% -
21 CHRISTENSEN Jack 6% 30% 39% 20% 4% -
22 ZHAN Ethan 2% 23% 45% 27% 3% -
23 YANG Ziwen 40% 44% 14% 1% - -
24 ROY Maggie 17% 39% 31% 11% 2% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.