Portland RJCC

Junior Men's Épée

Sunday, April 12, 2026 at 1:00 PM

Northwest Fencing Center - Tigard, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LU Jacob	-	-	-	2%	17%	50%	31%
2	NGUYEN Ethan V.	3%	20%	37%	29%	9%	1%
3	WANG aaron	-	1%	15%	39%	35%	10%
3	ZHANG Austin	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
5	LI Timothy	-	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
6	MATHES Caleb	-	-	-	1%	12%	46%	41%
7	TOYOFUKU Ethan	-	-	5%	25%	44%	26%
8	BREILING Niklas	-	-	-	6%	32%	62%
9	GOWDA Suyog	-	1%	11%	35%	40%	14%
10	DAN Rex	-	-	6%	26%	45%	24%
10	TOYOFUKU Lucas	-	8%	32%	40%	18%	2%
12	XIE HanZhang (Elon)	1%	12%	36%	36%	13%	2%
13	WANG Juehan	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%	-
14	MOU Jaydon	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	3%	-
15	CHEN Christopher	3%	17%	36%	31%	11%	1%
16	AYDIN Kaan	29%	53%	16%	2%	-	-
17	ST CLAIR Soren	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
18	RAMIREZ Hunter	-	8%	30%	40%	20%	2%
19	MYRAH Devin	-	8%	35%	39%	16%	2%
20	BREILING Sebastian	1%	9%	33%	39%	16%	2%
21	BACON Corban	-	6%	27%	41%	23%	3%
22	CASONI Calder	4%	34%	41%	18%	3%	-
23	GE Ray	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	3%	-
24	DESMOND-CIESLOWSKI Oscar	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
25	RAMIREZ Tristan	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
26	CHAN Joseph	24%	47%	24%	5%	-	-
27	YE Aiden	49%	43%	7%	-	-	-
28	ORTMANN Noah	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-
29	PATEL Krish	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
30	PARIKH Parth	35%	45%	17%	2%	-	-
31	CALKINS Logan	10%	34%	37%	17%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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